The risks linked to armed conflicts and economic tensions are among the main concerns of the business world, according to a report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) published on Wednesday, days before its annual meeting in Davos.
“Unfortunately we are experiencing a record number of conflicts in the world,” Mirek Dusek, head of the World Economic Forum, said in a press conference, citing Ukraine and the Middle East, but also “humanitarian emergencies” in Sudan, Somalia and Gaza.
Almost a quarter of those surveyed by the WEF among 11,000 business leaders in 121 countries placed this risk at the top of the list of dangers over a two-year horizon, while only aiming for fifth place in 2024.
“Geoeconomic confrontations”
For Mirek Dusek, this is “linked to the general feeling of a very complicated geoeconomic environment”, and the fear of “geoeconomic clashes” ranks third among the risks cited for this year.
“Rising protectionism and increasing trade disputes are causing a significant increase in customs duties and barriers to global trade,” especially as many countries try to secure their resources in raw materials critical for their technological innovations or transition. energy, he stressed. Carolina Klint, from the risk management company Marsh McLennan.
And these new trade barriers “will further disrupt supply chains, increasing costs and delays,” and potentially contribute to reviving inflation, he warned.
Concern about customs duties
The number of “new harmful policy interventions” increased from 600 in 2017 to more than 3,000 per year in 2022, the WEF estimated on Wednesday, citing figures from the organization Global Trade Alert, which evaluates trade policies around the world. And US President-elect Donald Trump, who will speak by video conference in Davos on January 23, has notably threatened to impose heavy customs duties on products arriving on American soil.
Extreme weather events are also widely cited by respondents, ranking second among immediate risks and even first over a ten-year horizon, at a time when historic fires are devastating part of Los Angeles in a context of worsening climate. climate change.
As in 2024, misinformation is also one of the main risks cited by participants, ranking fourth among immediate risks and leading concerns over a two-year horizon.
Source: BFM TV
