HomePoliticsCosta and the government sink, Marcelo keeps losing

Costa and the government sink, Marcelo keeps losing

The political climate is deteriorating and everyone is paying part of the bill: António Costa from the start, but also Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. According to Aximage’s most recent poll for the DN, JN and TSF, the Prime Minister and his government are sinking in the assessment of the Portuguese. The President of the Republic continues with a positive balance (24 points), but has been declining since December last year.

It has been six months since the government took office. But the Prime Minister’s state of grace was short-lived. Political stability did not come with the absolute majority, as expected. The July barometer already pointed to a very rare situation: António Costa noted a negative balance in the assessment of the Portuguese (two points). The results, arriving in October, show an unprecedented situation: two in a row in negative territory and the worst ever result by the Prime Minister (eight points with a negative balance) since the start of this series of barometers, in July 2020.

Elders punish Costa

Successive cases and disputes with ministers have contributed to the deterioration, but perhaps it is the economic crisis and especially the rising cost of living that are giving the final push. When analyzing the evaluations of the leader of the government between the different segments into which the sample is divided, there is a fundamental change from previous barometers: respondents aged 65 or older, those who always gave him more applause, stopped him give the benefit of the doubt and the balance is now negative (nine points). A reflection of the dissatisfaction with the solution for pensions, as reflected in the results of the survey we released yesterday: about 70% of respondents in the two oldest age groups consider “half-board” a negative measure that puts future pensions at a disadvantage.

The change in assessment between those living in the metropolitan areas of Porto and Lisbon also contributed to the fall of António Costa, as well as to the two lower income classes (in all cases it went from a positive balance in July to a negative balance now). The only ones who do not abandon the Prime Minister are those who vote for the PS (there is a balance of 66 positive points). The problem is that all indications are that the socialist electorate will shrink (tomorrow, with the publication of a projection on legislation, we’ll see if that’s the case or not).

The continuous descent of Marcel

The president of the republic remains the most popular politician in the country. And it is way above the prime (24 points positive balance). But this year the price is downwards. And this is the worst barometer ever for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, with the lowest percentage of positive reviews (49%) and the highest number of negative (25%). The survey does not contain questions that help explain the reasons for the fall, but it is believed that you are also paying the price for the deterioration of the economic and social situation. And the accusation, by the opposition, of being too close to the government.

When analyzing the segments of the sample, it can be seen that, with regard to geography, and despite maintaining a positive balance in all regions, the decline was stronger in Lisbon (from a positive balance of 46 points, in July , to the current 16). In terms of age, the elderly still give it the most positive ratings (53% now, 64% in July), but there it does not have the best balance (24 points now, 37 in July). Are seniors waiting for the president to confront the government about the pension solution?

Mariana still survives, Medina is the worst minister

Besides Marcelo, there is only one other political leader who can boast of a positive balance among the Portuguese: the minister of the presidency, Mariana Vieira da Silva (eight points, but falling). On the other side of the assessment, as far as the ministers are concerned, is that of Finance, Fernando Medina. In this latest barometer, he manages to be worse than Pedro Nuno Santos, Minister of Infrastructure (and of the airport soap).

The former mayor of Lisbon already started these barometers in negative territory, but since April it has been sinking deeper: the negative balance is now 27 points (from 12 in July), reflecting the tumbling between the older people (i.e. pensioners) who went from positive to negative review. All that remains are the PS voters, but by a narrowing margin.

Pedro Nuno Santos is no longer the worst minister in this government, but he still has a negative balance (21 points now, 32 in July). Time passed after António Costa’s rejection on the issue of the new Lisbon airport and the first to forgive the Minister of Infrastructure were those who voted for PS, where this time he got a positive balance.

sheep in red

The Minister of the Interior, who has always been on the cutting edge, is equally affected by the current crisis climate and is moving from a positive balance (two points) to a negative balance (three points). Unlike Medina, it is the elders who avoid a more pronounced fall of José Luís Carneiro: in counter-movement with other political figures, he improves his result and has a positive balance of 18 points among the over-65s.

A final note for Manuel Pizarro’s debut in these barometers. There are no major conclusions yet, as the fieldwork took place a few days after his appointment as Minister of Health. Too bad it debuts with a zero balance in difficult times for the government. But if we add those who resort to a neutral response and those who don’t know or don’t respond, we have 70% of respondents. A more substantiated assessment will have to wait until the end of the year.

Montenegro catches but does not overtake Ventura

It was still not from this that André Ventura lost the “race” the main figure of the opposition. But the leader of Chega already has Luís Montenegro on hand, even though the PSD president does not have a seat in parliament, which probably hurts him in media terms. They both have 30 points and are a long way from all other party leaders, according to Aximage’s poll for DN, JN and TSF.

Last May, Luís Montenegro was elected chairman of the PSD. And it was in July that Congress gave him all the leadership tools. On that month’s barometer, he got no more than 19% in the “election” for the main opposition figure. But the summer passed and the Social Democrat not only gained more following, but also grew at the expense of the leader of the radical right.

metropolitan PSD

When analyzing the different segments, it is clear that there are substantial differences between their “supporters”. In terms of gender, men gravitate towards Montenegro (36%) and women, somewhat surprisingly, towards Ventura (29%). If the criterion is geography, the leader of the PSD leads the way in the two metropolitan areas and the leader of Chega in the rest of the country. In terms of ages and social classes, the difference is also quite clear: Montenegro wins among the oldest and between the two groups with the highest income; Ventura leads the way in the youngest and in the two poorest rows.

When the emphasis is on the party vote, Ventura dominates among the Chega voters (82%), not so much in the case of Montenegro. PSD voters even call him the main opposition figure (54%), but there are still 29% who point to the leader of the radical right. If Montenegro had already convinced its own voters, it would be ahead.

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DATA SHEET
The poll was conducted by Aximage for the DN, TSF and JN, with the aim of evaluating the Portuguese’s opinion on current political affairs.
The fieldwork took place between 21 and 24 September 2022 and 810 interviews were conducted among people over 18 years old living in Portugal. A quota sample, obtained through a gender, age, and region (NUTSII) cross matrix, was performed from the known universe, rebalanced by gender, age group, and education. For a probability sample of 810 interviews, the maximum standard deviation of a proportion is 0.017 (ie a “margin of error” – at 95% – of 3.44%). Study responsibility: Aximage Comunicação e Imagem, Lda., under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.

Author: Rafael Barbosa

Source: DN

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