Can Donald Trump’s re-election give Emmanuel Macron a break on the European and international scene, at a time when he is in decline on the French political scene? The question remains open this Wednesday, November 6, when the European Union will probably have to intensify its confrontations with Joe Biden’s successor.
>> Donald Trump elected president, follow the final results and live reactions
From economic to climate issues, the opportunity could be excellent for the French president, considered demonetized by some in Brussels since the dissolution, to regain political depth.
Resumption on the European scene
Well aware of this opportunity, Emmanuel Macron asked “a European strategic awakening” during the Council of Ministers. A few hours earlier, he had asked German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz to work together “for a more united, stronger and more sovereign Europe,” according to a German Government spokesperson.
The head of state could well be tempted to become Donald Trump’s privileged European interlocutor as he managed to do at the beginning of his first five-year term. At that time, he took advantage of the weakening of Angela Merkel, who had been busy forming her government for months, and the disappearance of the United Kingdom, a traditional ally of the United States, to then dedicate himself to the negotiations for Brexit.
With some success: the tenant of the Elysée was the first foreign leader to have the honors of a state visit to a symbolic dinner at Mount Vernonthe prestigious residence of George Washington. The results, however, were quite meager and did not change the main lines, particularly in the war in Syria.
Oppose the increase in customs duties
First important issue for the tenant of the Elysée in the coming months: the question of increasing customs duties on European products by at least 10 to 20%. Fashion, perfumes, wines and spirits… The measure could have a lasting impact in France. French wine exports to the United States alone represent $2.1 billion in the French trade balance.
Evidently keen not to offend Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron was one of the first world leaders to welcome Donald Trump’s victory this Wednesday.
Countering Trump on climate
Second issue where France might want to take advantage: climate issues. Donald Trump has already announced that he wants to once again withdraw the United States from the Paris climate agreements.
Acted during his first presidency before a return under Joe Biden, who signs a historic return to the White House should resume his climate skeptic suit and take the United States out of this environmental agreement.
The new president has already promised that his country will “drill (for oil) like crazy.” Something to worry about when Americans have the largest carbon footprint per capita on the entire planet.
In 2018, Emmanuel Macron played the arm-wrestling card with Donald Trump by calling to “make our planet great again” from the Elysée, almost word for word the US president’s motto during his campaign. A few minutes before this message was broadcast, he called his American counterpart by phone, mentioning “new European initiatives” to fight global warming.
The method, however, barely bore fruit: Donald Trump did not reverse his withdrawal from the Paris Agreements.
Continue supporting Ukraine
Latest topics on which Emmanuel Macron could try to influence Donald Trump: diplomatic issues. The president of the United States already assured during his campaign that he would find an agreement between Russia and Ukraine “in less than 24 hours”, without giving more details.
Enough to make Kyiv fear a shift in American spending in its favor. Since the start of the conflict in February 2022, the United States has been the largest donor to Ukraine, with more than €60 billion in military aid and the unwavering support shown by joe biden.
In recent months, the European Union has forcibly adopted an agreement to finance new military aid to Ukraine. Germany, a major donor, is now reluctant to put its hand in its pocket, much to the chagrin of Emmanuel Macron. The likely US retreat on the issue could give France something to work towards in resuming its role as Volodymyr Zelensky’s first defender.
Unknown about the conflict between Israel and Hamas
Regarding the issue of the war between Israel and Hamas, Donald Trump has repeatedly assured that Israel’s security depended directly on him. In September, speaking before representatives of the Jewish community, he presented himself as the “protector” of Israel and declared that the country would cease to exist if the Democrats won the elections.
Could this push the French Head of State, eager to show a certain balance between his support for Israel and his concern for the fate of Gaza, perpetually looted since the October 7 attacks, to get more involved? Until now, Emmanuel Macron has always made sure to maintain a balanced stance.
While the Jewish and Muslim communities living in France are among the largest in Europe, fear of tensions within France, against a backdrop of explosions of anti-Semitic acts, is on everyone’s minds. Enough to push the head of state not to appear with or against Donald Trump on this issue.
Pending his inauguration next January and future meetings with Emmanuel Macron, French diplomacy is already active behind the scenes. Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu will receive his German counterpart this Wednesday afternoon to discuss the consequences of the billionaire’s return to the White House.
Source: BFM TV
