At the end of three days of offensive against the armed forces of Bashar al-Assad, jihadist forces and Syrian rebels took control of the “large part” of Aleppo, the second most populated city in Syria, according to the Observatory. Syrian Human Rights Organization (OSDH), a UK-based NGO with an extensive network of sources in Syria.
This attack shook the entire northeast of Syria, which had not experienced attacks of such intensity for at least four years, after having been at the center of fighting on numerous occasions since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011.
• A coalition of jihadists and rebels
On Wednesday, jihadists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an alliance dominated by the former Syrian branch of Al Qaeda, and rebels, particularly remnants of the Free Syrian Army, supported by Turkey, attacked regime territories in the province. of Aleppo and in the neighboring region of Idlib (northwest).
In the images released by the fighters, we see them wearing insignia of the Islamic State along with others who wear symbols of this rebel Free Syrian Army and of nationalist opponents of the Bashar al-Assad regime since the beginning of the war.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH), only three days were enough to conquer dozens of villages and especially the “most” of Aleppo neighborhoods, government buildings and prisons.
The fighting left more than 300 dead, mostly combatants – among them a hundred government forces and their allies – but also 28 civilians, according to the OSDH.
The operation had been prepared for several months, says Dareen Khalifa, an expert with the International Crisis Group. “It was presented as a defensive campaign against an escalation of the regime,” emphasizes Dareen Khalifa, referring to the previous intense bombings by the Syrian army and its Russian ally against rebel areas in the northwest.
After more than a decade of war that has divided Syria, the belligerents still have the support of different regional and international powers with divergent interests.
• Syria’s allies are perceived to be weakened
In the past, Damascus has been able to count on the support of the Russian air force and the forces of the Lebanese Hezbollah, absorbed during the last two months by its open war against Israel.
HTS and its allies also “watch regional and geostrategic change.” Their offensive was launched on the same day that a truce came into force in Lebanon between the Israeli army and Hezbollah, an ally of the Syrian regime and Tehran.
“They believe that now the Iranians are weakened and the regime cornered,” says Dareen Khalifa.
In recent months, in parallel with the war in Lebanon, Israel has carried out several attacks on Syrian territory, saying it wants to neutralize Hezbollah by attacking its arms transfers coordinated with Tehran and Syrian forces.
For its part, Russia is in the middle of a war in Ukraine. “The Russian presence has been considerably reduced” in the region, explains analyst Aaron Stein, president of the American think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute.
• A turning point in the civil war?
Without a doubt, the offensive is a serious blow to Damascus. The loss of the Aleppo neighborhoods is all the more symbolic since, in 2016, the regime’s reconquest of all rebel sectors of the metropolis constituted an essential victory for Bashar al-Assad and his allies.
This battle of Aleppo then represented a turning point in the Syrian war. It was marked by a strong intervention by the Russian air force, committed in 2015 in Syria to get the weakened regime back on track.
“Regime lines collapsed at an incredible rate that took everyone by surprise,” said Dareen Khalifa.
The rebels cut off the strategic M5 highway linking Damascus with Aleppo and a road junction connecting with Latakia. Despite confirmed fighting by the Syrian army, jihadists and rebels have advanced without encountering “any significant resistance,” says Rami Abdel Rahmane, director of the OSDH.
On Friday, the Kremlin called on Syrian authorities to “bring order as quickly as possible” in Aleppo. Tehran denounced a plot hatched by the United States and Israel.
The offensive comes at a delicate diplomatic moment: a potential rapprochement between Damascus and Ankara has been stalled for years. Moscow and Iran call for relaxation, but Damascus demands the withdrawal of Turkish troops deployed in northern Syria along the border.
For Caroline Rose of the Washington-based Newlines Institute, the measured reaction of Damascus’s allies could well be “a way of forcing the regime to negotiate from a weaker position, in the absence of any sign of support from the Russians and Iranians”. he said on the social network X.
Türkiye, which supports rebels in northern Syria, has called for an end to the regime’s “attacks” on the Idlib enclave. “In the coming days, if (the rebels) manage to maintain their (territorial) gains, it will be a telling test of the extent of Turkish commitment,” says Dareen Khalifa.
Source: BFM TV
