Panic in the markets, smile at the bomb? This is what stands out after the commercial war launched by Donald Trump last week and the strong falls of the courses registered in the world financial centers.
This is also the case of oil prices: this Monday morning, the American Oil WTI barrel released 4% to 59.51 dollars: a level of less than 60 dollars for the first time since April 2021, after having lost more than 16% since Wednesday.
Decrendy demand, increasing
The mechanism is quite classic: the commercial war brings to the fears of the global recession, which would cause a fall in the demand for oil and, therefore, a drop in oil prices.
Another element that promotes a price drop: the OPEC+ producing countries indicated that they canceled their production discounts scheduled for May. An increase in supply, faced with a decrease in demand, enough to submerge courses.
Expected effects on service stations
“This is very good news for motorists who will see in a week or two prices that fall in the bomb,” summarizes Raphaël Legendre, editorialist BFM Business.
During a fairly long period, prices in the pump were already at a relatively low level compared to recent years, with a fall since mid -January, finishing a general increase since the 2024 fall.
For a week, there is already a slight drop in bomb prices, with -1.7 cm in 95 -E10 without lead, at 1,734 euros per liter on average today in France, and -3.5 cents in diesel, at 1,633 euros per liter, according to the latest Survey of Fuel.com.
Enough to rule out the fear of a resumption of inflation in Europe linked to this commercial war:
“It really is a decrease that will be marked, knowing that we are in a context in which inflation decreases in the euro zone, even in France, therefore, the question of inflation that encouraged us for 2-3 years, during the COVID and the post-Covvid is no longer there,” said Christopher Dembik, an investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.
“Often, we emphasize that protectionism, with this tariff war, will create a beginning of inflation, we are very cautious, it is certainly the case, but it will be more on the American side than us on the European side, so for European consumers, in general we are in an inflation close to 2% in France, which should remain at this level, so it is rather good news,” he adds.
Source: BFM TV
