The automotive market continues black. In May, 123,918 new vehicle records were registered in France, a fall of more than 12% for a year, according to figures from the automotive platform. Since the beginning of the year, the fall has been 8% compared to 2024.
But you have to go further to return to the origins of this fall. “When we observe the evolution of sales to people in the last thirty years, we have witnessed a real collapse, it emphasizes BFMTV Flavien Neumvy, economist and director of the Cetelem Observatory. In the mid -1990s, we had around 7 to 8% of households that bought a new car every year, there are more around 2% of households in homes, new.” “. New”. “.” “.” “.” “.” “.” “.” “
And the restart of the sector should not be for tomorrow. According to estimates, around 1.6 million new vehicles are expected to be sold this year against 2.2 million in 2019, last year before the health crisis. Or a 27% drop in six years.
Priced
One of the main causes of the darkening of the sale of new cars is, of course, the increase in prices. According to a recent study of the Institute of Mobility in Transition and C-Kays, the prices of new vehicles in France increased 24% between 2020 and 2024, an average increase of 6,800 euros.
“Selling new cars has increased a lot in the last 20 years, approximately twice as quickly as inflation,” Flavien Neuvy said. Several factors explain this flight: “There is the first electrification”, while sales of new thermal vehicles will be prohibited in 2035, withdraws Clément Dupont-Roc, director of strategy at C-Kays. Until then, “you must electrify the vehicles, hybridize the hybridando, of which it costs a little money” to the manufacturers, he adds, adds that he represents approximately “a quarter” of the price increase.
Then there is “the update of the manufacturers: we sell more large and less cars” because “of certain standards that have made these small vehicles less and less profitable, at least less profitable than large SUVs,” says Clement Dupont-Roc. Finally, part of the high price increase is linked “to inflation” and “there are some price increases chosen by certain manufacturers to improve their margin,” he continues.
“Stability is needed in public policies”
Beyond the outbreak of prices, “there are several elements that are taken into account to explain the fall in new car sales this year, while the market was already at an extremely low level,” says Flavien Neivy. The economist first cites “relatively low growth in France.” However, “there is a strong correlation between economic growth and car sales volumes because it affects sales to companies.”
In addition, “motorists are a bit lost because we are in a 100% electric transition with the prohibition of the sale of thermal cars in 2035. But there are many motorists who doubt a little, who wonder if this regulation will go at the end, so when it is in uncertainty, it generates wait,” explains Flavien Neumvy.
For him “the crisis is serious for the automotive industry.” He believes that manufacturers will have to “offer cheaper cars” to stop the fall. To do this, “stability is needed in public policies” and that “regulations stop changing permanently.” “We know that regulations have impacted car sales prices because more efficient, very safe environmental cars are required and that costs manufacturers that have to equip cars with expensive technology.”
On the other hand, the sales of electric cars mark the fall after progress in the last five years. “We are in a tray. We must remember that electric cars are much more expensive than thermal, while the thermal is already very expensive,” Flavien Neuvy said. In the end, it is the second -hand market that resists better, even if it has also been affected in recent years due to price increases due to tender scarcity.
Source: BFM TV
