If chocolate is appreciated by so many people it is for its sweet sweet taste. A flavor that, however, becomes increasingly salty when you put your favorite tablet in the shopping cart. In fact, the price of cocoa is currently over $3,200 per ton, unheard of since 2015. The raw material for chocolate is now close to its all-time high.
On Friday, a ton of cocoa was trading in New York at around $3,210, a 25% price increase from the start of 2023 and 31% compared to a current year. One more level observed since late 2015 and only a few tens of dollars from the record set in April 2008, at $3,411 (in session).
Two difficult seasons for cocoa
In line with the price of cocoa, the price of chocolate on the shelves has logically increased by 14% in one year, according to data from panelist NielsenIQ, cited by CNBC. And it would not be about to stop according to the American media, which is based on the words of various specialists and evokes tensions in the cocoa supply chain.
Among the reasons for this poor cocoa spell, the analyst mentions in particular the return of the El Niño weather phenomenon that will reduce the amount of rain expected in West Africa, the main cocoa-growing area in the world. Consequently, the next harvest season, which runs from October to September of next year, could still be in deficit, with the key being a rebound in the price of chocolate that could exceed $3,600 per ton, which would be an absolute record.
In fact, producers will have no choice but to transfer this drop in production to prices on the shelves.
More impacted dark chocolate
But the rise in the price of cocoa is not the only factor that explains the dizzying price of chocolate bars. Rising energy prices and interest rates are also playing a role.
But among these secondary factors, it is above all the increase in the price of cocoa butter (+20% in one year) and sugar (which is at its highest level in 11 years) that have the most significant impact.
However, prospects for cocoa butter (inextricably linked to cocoa itself) and sugar (producing regions in Asia have been severely affected by drought) are not encouraging. Therefore, the price of chocolate should not fall in the coming months, on the contrary.
And among the different types of chocolate, it is the dark one, richer in cocoa, that should experience a stronger increase.
Source: BFM TV
