Gas consumption could restart under the effect of falling prices in the markets, estimates GRTgaz on Friday, which calls for continued sobriety efforts to save stocks in case France trembled this winter. “We expect gas consumption that could be higher than in 2022 because price levels are lower,” stressed Thierry Oublie, CEO of GRTgaz, the main manager of the gas transportation network.
Indeed, prices have fallen back to around 35 euros per MWh in the markets, when last summer they were around 240 euros. For the moment, however, demand from large, energy-intensive industrialists does not seem to have recovered: “we do not see many sectors that have resumed”, except in refining, explained Thierry Oublie, referring to an “inertia effect”.
Since August 1, 2022, that is, since the government’s first calls for sobriety, residential and industrial gas consumption has fallen by 17% compared to the 2018-2019 reference period. By 2023, the government wants to keep the drop in energy consumption as a whole, electricity, gas, fuel at -10%, all year.
“Sobriety efforts must continue to facilitate maximum storage filling in anticipation of a potentially cold winter of 2023-2024,” GRTgaz also emphasized during a presentation to the Association of Energy Journalists.
Stocks 62% full
For now, don’t worry: as of June 26, stocks were 62% full, close to last year’s levels. But these storage levels need to be maximized by the end of October in anticipation of winter. Until the war in Ukraine, France depended on 17% of Russian gas imports transported by pipelines, which it had to replace with other import sources and in particular with liquefied natural gas, which entered France by ship, jumped 102% in 2022. .
“Due to the interruption of the supply of Russian gas, the margin is low,” said GRTgaz. Filling up the storage will therefore require mobilizing gas inflows by pipeline through northern France and Spain and LNG through the four LNG terminals in the country, “at a level close to its maximum until the end of the season of filling, in autumn”.
France will have a fifth entry point for LNG with the arrival of a floating terminal in Le Havre in September, meaning an additional import capacity of 20 TWh. A very cold winter can cause a deficit of 16 TWh at consumption peaks.
Source: BFM TV
