L’inflation s’est de nouveau accélérée aux Etats-Unis en juillet, pour la première fois depuis juin 2022, toujours tirée par les prix des logements, mais restée stable sur un mois, selon l’indice CPI published jeudi par le département from work. Inflation was 3.2% annual in July, compared to 3.0% the previous month. Analysts, however, had expected a somewhat stronger rally, to 3.3%, according to the Market Watch consensus. However, for one month, inflation remained stable, at 0.2%, as expected.
“The housing index was by far the main contributor, (…) representing more than 90% of the increase (in one month)”, details the Department of Labor, which adds that the prices of automobile insurance have also contributed.
One positive sign, however: core inflation, which does not take into account energy and food prices, continued to slow for a year, to 4.7% versus 4.8%, and was also stable for a month, at 0.2%. This measure is considered by economists as a more relevant signal about the direction that inflation is taking. “Core prices are moving in the right direction,” Rubeela Farooqi, an economist at High Frequency Economics, said in a note.
This is, he stresses, “good news” for officials of the US central bank, the Fed, in the front line in the fight against inflation. “However, the current exchange rates justify a restrictive policy for a while to bring prices towards the target,” the economist qualifies.
Peak of 9.2% in June 2022
The pace of price increases has now slowed sharply from a year-on-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022, the highest inflation since the early 1980s. But that’s still too high for taste. from the Fed, which has a 2.0% target Since March 2022, it has raised its rates 11 times. Your main key rate is now in a range of 5.25 to 5.50%. These rate hikes raise lending rates for households and businesses.
Opinions differ among Fed officials on whether or not to continue raising rates at the next meeting on September 19-20. Because the risk is putting too much pressure on the brake and therefore causing a recession. However, this scenario seems to be avoidable, whereas a few months ago it seemed inevitable. However, a sharp economic slowdown is expected in late 2023 and early 2024.
And at a time when major economies are fighting inflation, China entered deflation in July (prices fell), weighed down by slow domestic consumption that complicates economic recovery.
Source: BFM TV
