Will the year 2024 mark a break in employment in France? Since 2015, the country has seen a continuous decline in the unemployment rate. In 8 years, this rate has gone from 10.5% to 7.1% of the active population according to INSEE. A duration of decline unprecedented in France for several decades.
But in this inflationary context marked by a rapid rise in interest rates and a slowdown in consumption and investment, threats loom over employment in France. The latest forecast, that of the OFCE, even points to an increase in unemployment that could approach 8% at the end of 2024. That is, a return to the level of the beginning of 2020. A stoppage and bad news in the perspective of full employment as a government objective.
Invited to BFM Business this Thursday, the Minister of Labor recognizes that the period is less favorable for employment but also remembers that the situation in France is not the least enviable in Europe.
Risk of slight increase
In Germany and the United Kingdom, for example, two countries hit by recession, the unemployment rate has increased in recent months. With a rate stabilized at 7.1%, France is saved for the moment.
And if the majority of forecasts (OFCE, Banque de France, etc.) indicate an increase, the Minister of Labor wants to be more optimistic than the 8% expected in 2024.
“Our forecasts are not at this level, we have worked with INSEE, the unemployment rate has increased in recent months. With a rate that has stabilized at 7.1%, France is in favor of hours saved”, explains Olivier Dussopt, who remembers economics. has created 2 million jobs in the last six years. Many forecasts told us that we would not be at 7.1%, here we are, many forecasts said that “we would be in recession in 2023, we continue to grow. Let’s continue fighting and not be in a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
In October of this year the National Assembly adopted a full employment law. It provides, in particular, for the creation of the new France Travail agency, as well as the establishment of the employment contract and 15 hours of weekly activity for RSA beneficiaries.
Source: BFM TV
