One after another, the main economic institutes are revising downwards their global growth forecasts for the coming year, due to the war in Ukraine, runaway inflation and the energy crisis.
The latest: the IMF, which again lowered its rate to 2.7%, 0.2 points less than the previous review in July.
In Europe, France should emerge from recession, unlike Germany and Italy, with a forecast of +0.7%, that is, 0.2 points more than the average for the euro zone.
The IMF is a little more optimistic than the Banque de France, which has +0.5% while the government still maintains a projection of +1%.
Forecasts from 0 to +1% for 2023
But “this projection is surrounded by very large uncertainties linked to the evolution of the war in Ukraine”, as well as to the “quantities and prices of gas supplies” and “the extension of the duration of government measures to protect homes and companies”. notes the Banque de France.
An opinion shared by Reexecode analysts who simply see 0% French growth in 2023 for a year.
“The slowdown in global economic activity, and even its contraction in China and the United States in the first half of the year, eased the pressure on supplies and on commodity prices. But, while an inflationary mechanism for wages has taken hold in the United States and is brewing in Europe, the rise in interest rates will continue. The European economy will suffer even more supply restrictions (energy, labor), to the point of entering the current recession in 2023”, explains the cabinet in a note.
Source: BFM TV
