“2024 under the sign of illusion.” This is the formula used by survey institute Viavoice to summarize the results of its latest decision-maker barometer conducted for BFM Business, Le Figaro and HEC Paris. At the end of 2023, the “morale of decision-makers” index registered a slight decrease and stood at -35 compared to -34 last September and confirms its downward trend observed since this summer after its rise in early 2023.
Whether they are decision-makers or the general public, only 10% of respondents say that the year 2023 will have been better than they thought in economic terms. Within the two samples, 43% considered it less good than expected.
Optimism about the standard of living and financial situation.
One of the positive points of the survey refers to the standard of living. Although the figure remains low, a larger proportion of decision-makers surveyed believe that living standards will improve in France within a year: 18% compared to 15% in September, while the proportion of those who predict a deterioration in the standard of living decreases by 5 points, up to 68% of the 400 responsible people surveyed. As for the general public, only 13% foresee an improvement, but there are also fewer who foresee a worsening than at the beginning of the school year (72% instead of 76%).
If only 18% foresee an improvement in their financial situation in the coming months, only 46% of decision makers foresee a deterioration, compared to 54% last September. The drop is a little less significant among the general public (-5 points, to 52%), but the proportion of French people who consider an improvement in their financial situation registered a small increase of 2 points to also reach 18%.
In addition to these rather optimistic expectations about the standard of living and financial situation, around a quarter of decision-makers and French people foresee significant opportunities to advance their careers in the coming months, a proportion that has increased slightly in two months. If 69% of French people continue to believe that these opportunities are weak, the same goes for a smaller number of decision-makers compared to last September (-3 points).
Growing pessimism about unemployment
On the other hand, the outlook for unemployment is much more pessimistic. Only 14% (-7 points in two months) of decision-makers and 12% of French people (-5 points) foresee a fall in the number of unemployed in France in the coming months. In contrast, 62% of decision-makers (+8 points) and even 71% of the general public foresee an increase, a spectacular increase of 13 points since September.
The perception that decision-makers and the French have of their colleagues is also deteriorating. Thus, 45% of decision-makers (-3 points) and only 36% of workers surveyed (-4 points) consider that their employees are motivated. Worse still, the majority of workers now consider that their employees are not motivated (54%, 6 points more in two months).
The reduction of domestic taxes among the main remedies for the economic situation
According to the results of the barometer, policy makers and the general public agree on the priority areas to improve the French economic situation in the coming months: almost half of them highlight a significant reduction in domestic taxes. Only the advantages for companies producing in France are cited slightly more by decision-makers who, like the French (27%), also mention a simplification of the regulations affecting companies (32%). More than one in four officials also mention the increase in taxes on imports, while more than a third of French people expect a significant increase in the minimum wage and social minimums.
Decision-makers and the general public differ over which actors they trust to improve France’s economic situation in the coming months. The first are 39% who mention companies and innovation and 29% who mention consumers and household spending. Orders of magnitude that are reversed for the general public. However, only 15% of decision makers and French people trust the State and public authorities for this task.
More concerned about themselves than their businesses.
Whether among decision-makers or the general public, pessimism is widely prevalent (65% of the former and 67% of the French). Decision-makers are also slightly more optimistic than the French for the coming year from an economic point of view (30% of respondents compared to 27%). Asked about the Bank of France’s recent estimate of a sharp drop in growth in the first quarter, less than half of decision-makers and workers (53 and 54% respectively) feel worried about their businesses. On the other hand, this estimate worries 70% on a personal level.
Finally, decision-makers and the French converge on their concerns and the survey yields the same “podium” for both samples. Around 60% of both groups surveyed believe that continued inflation in most goods and services constitutes the main factor that will penalize economic growth in 2024, followed by the evolution of oil prices cited by more than 40% of respondents and then the high levels of mandatory taxation emerging from around 30% of the samples.
Source: BFM TV
