During this month, Portuguese consumers were confronted with two different scenarios at the fuel pumps. This is because, while the average price of petrol increased by four cents (2.8%) compared to the same period last year and stood at 1,657 euros until December 15, the diesel price fell by one cent (0.6%), which now costs 1,597 euros each. liters, according to a survey conducted by the General Directorate of Energy and Geology (DGEG) in the country’s 2,940 active stations.
Although not significant, taking into account the fluctuations since the start of the war in Ukraine, these variations have a direct impact on drivers’ pockets when it comes to refueling. At the end of 2022, a 50 liter tank represented an expenditure of 80.55 euros, in the case of 95 gasoline, and 80.40 euros, in the case of simple diesel, and today the same tank costs 82.85 and 79.85 euros respectively . After all, consumers saw an increase of 2.30 euros on petrol and a saving of 55 cents on diesel.
Ricardo Marques, an IMF specialist, emphasizes that the price of diesel on the European wholesale market, which results from the value of a barrel of Brent (which serves as a reference in Europe), contributes to the diesel refining margin and the dollar exchange rate. applied, currently reflects a value of 60 cents per liter, compared to 69 cents per liter a year ago, “which means we should have diesel nine cents cheaper to begin with”. According to the person responsible, the increase in the sales margin or the tax levy are the two possible explanations for the situation.
The DGEG annual chart shows that the third quarter was the period with the largest increases, with September proving to be the most expensive month as Portuguese paid an average of 1,861 euros per liter for petrol and 1,763 euros per liter for petrol. diesel – values, in the same order, 10.9% and 9.4% higher than the current ones. For example, for the same offer, expenditure was 93.05 euros and 88.15 euros per fuel, resulting in an additional 10.20 euros and 8.30 euros compared to December prices.
António Comprido, general secretary of the Portuguese Association of Petroleum Companies (APETRO), explains that, together with “some changes in taxes during the year” – such as the reduction of the Tax on Petroleum Products (ISP) and the suspension of updating the CO2 tax – the fluctuations felt in 2023 reflect the evolution of product prices on international markets: if on the one hand the increase in the summer was related to the expectation of growth in consumption, which did not materialize, the perception that the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was “limited in time and scope” quickly caused prices to fall.
In the global context, Henrique Tomé, analyst at Oil industry. The market “managed to maintain relative stability” even as the price of a barrel fluctuated “roughly within a range of $30, between the minimum recorded in April and the maximum recorded in September,” he explains .
However, fuel prices in Portugal have been falling since October – in fact, next week will be the eighth in a row in which both petrol (1.5 cents) and diesel (two cents) have fallen. But the APETRO representative warns that “this decline will not last forever.” First of all, because “instability factors will not disappear in 2024,” and may even worsen, he explains. “Armed conflict is unknown, as is its outcome, and there will be elections around the world, from Portugal to Europe and from Russia to the United States.”
António Comprido also discusses the downward revision of economic growth next year, by analysts, applicable at national and global levels, to remember that fuels depend on the economy in general, although this is a market easily influenced by ‘situation-specific events, such as a conflict in a production zone or an interruption of supplies to refineries”
As for prices, the expectation is that they “will not exceed much of the fluctuation band they recorded in 2023,” and could eventually deteriorate due to the force of taxes. We should not forget that the state budget for 2024 estimates an increase in ISP revenues by 13.4%, to 3.4 billion euros, due to the gradual release of the CO2 tax update.
The tax burden in Portugal, taking only VAT into account, remains high compared to other countries in the European Union. This is comparable to that of Poland and is only surpassed by the Scandinavian countries, Croatia and Greece. Cutting the ISP and carbon tax has been the government’s strategy to cushion the impact of fuel price increases, giving the current ISP discounts of 13.1 cents per liter on diesel and 15.3 cents per liter on gasoline.
Mariana Coelho DIas is a journalist for Dinheiro Vivo
Source: DN
