Corporate insolvencies will take off strongly next year internationally after falling sharply during the pandemic and then slowly recovering this year, insurer Allianz Trade predicts in a study published on Thursday.
“After two years of decline, we anticipate a general acceleration in commercial bankruptcies,” the insurer wrote in a report published Thursday titled “Commercial Risk Is Back.”
Globally, it forecasts an increase in insolvencies of around 19% in 2023 compared to the current year, against +10% in 2022.
“A reality”
They are “already a reality”, points out the organization, which highlights the double-digit increase in bankruptcy proceedings already in India, Australia, Canada, Turkey and Austria in the first half of 2022.
The increase in interest rates and wage increases granted by inflation are two of the factors that explain the growing difficulties of companies, particularly in the construction, transport, telecommunications and textile sectors.
The increase in insolvencies is all the more marked since they were at an artificially low level during the pandemic due to financial aid.
In France, the collective proceedings opened before the commercial courts between July 1 and September 30 increased by 69% compared to the summer of 2021, the specialized firm Altarès recently observed, which noted a sharp increase in defaults this summer. .
artificially low level
Allianz Trade forecasts a 29% increase in insolvencies next year on French territory, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
In detail, Western Europe has already recorded one of the highest levels of the areas studied in the first half of the year with a 24% increase in insolvencies in one year. “Looking forward, the energy bill will remain the biggest drag on profitability,” says Allianz Trade, referring to rising electricity and gas costs since the outbreak of war in Ukraine.
Europe finds itself with mixed fortunes: France and the UK should see a 10% rise in insolvencies throughout 2022, but Italy should see them decline.
Like Italy, other countries such as the United States, China and Germany continue to benefit from low levels of corporate insolvency, reports Allianz Trade.
Source: BFM TV
