More than half (51%) of SME/VSE executives believe that the climate of political uncertainty since the dissolution has had a “strong” negative impact on their activity, according to the quarterly barometer published on Tuesday by Bpifrance Le Lab and Rexecode.
Furthermore, 34% of these patterns describe a “moderate” impact, and only 18% do not report a specific impact.
These 3,642 people were interviewed from 22 August to 3 September, at the height of the two-month wait between the early legislative elections and the appointment of Michel Barnier in Matignon on 5 September.
Thus, 44% and 51% of those who had investment or hiring plans respectively maintained them despite the political uncertainty. However, 36% and 28% postponed them and 20% and 21% cancelled them.
Deferral of investments and hiring.
In comparison, the study notes, “these proportions are close” to those observed in the fall of 2020, before the second Covid-related lockdown.
The economist thus recalls that the fall at the end of 2020 was followed by “a growth boom” since the vaccine became known at the beginning of 2021.
Note also that the indicators for SMEs and VSEs had been declining for several quarters, well before the political sequence of the summer.
In particular, investment had already begun to decline. In the survey published on Tuesday, the proportion of SME/VSE managers planning to invest in the year (46%) fell four points compared to the previous quarter and eleven points compared to the third quarter of 2023.
Two good news
The balance between those who want to increase their investment spending and those who want to reduce it is clearly tilted towards the latter, at -15: that is, -5 points compared to the second quarter, and a historic low outside of 2020.
Environmental investments are suffering: they are cited by 36% of SME/VSE entrepreneurs, i.e. -5 points since May and -11 since February.
In addition to the insufficient level of demand, the difficulty of hiring is now the number one problem for these companies.
Philippe Mutricy, however, sees two pieces of “good news” in the study: wages are expected to rise faster than prices and disinflation continues.
Source: BFM TV
