Giorgia Meloni poses as a privileged interlocutor of Donald Trump. The first European leader to go to the White House since the beginning of the commercial war, the president of the Italian Council declared himself on Thursday on the name of the EU by a commercial agreement with the United States.
Before the former billionaire entrepreneur with whom he shares a large ideological base and maintains good relations, he did not hesitate to put the VRP suit in Italy and Europe, annoy the results obtained in migration and economic matters since his arrival at the head of the country.
“Stable”, as the perspective supported by the Italian public debt note indicated last week from BBB to BBB+ by the S&P qualification agency. “The increase reflects the improvement of economic, external and monetary shock absorbers in Italy in a context of growing world winds, as well as the gradual progress made in the stabilization of public finances since the beginning of the pandemic,” S&P said in its evaluation.
In recent months, Italy has managed to clean its public finances spectacularly. This is evidenced by its deficit in 7.2% of GDP in 2023 to 3.4% in 2024. An even lower level than the government took advantage (3.8%). In the fourth quarter, the country even registered a surplus (+0.4%) for the first time since 2019.
Exporting companies largely
This ornament is timely, while Rome, directed by a European procedure for excessive public deficit (such as France), is under high pressure to straighten its accounts and reduce its public debt that limits with 3,000 million euros (135.3%).
Several measures have been implemented in the last two years to allow the Peninsula to return to the path of a serious budget: the abolition of the “superbon”, a fiscal advantage implemented by the previous government to encourage the renewal of buildings and improve energy efficiency, reduction of energy -related costs through a diversification plan for supply sources to reduce dependence on Russian gas, released at the super -rich level …
In the end, Italian public spending fell by 3.6% in 2024, while tax revenues increased 3.7%, particularly thanks to dynamic consumption and the results of exporting companies in a very large way. Thanks to its many industrial SMEs, as well as its quality but competitive products in terms of price, Italy has become the world exporter last year.
Italy weakened by the commercial war?
Could the Commercial War stop the Italian dynamics? Probably. Italy today achieves more than 10% of its exports to the United States, which makes it the third commercial partner of the Peninsula. At the moment, “the US government’s decision to suspend the customs duties of 20% announced against European products for three months and limit to 10% means that shock for the Italian economy will be manageable, from our point of view,” Judge S&P.
However, the qualification agency warns that it could lead to the Italian note again if “the commercial shock caused by the tasks of US customs customs was significantly agitated the confidence of consumers and companies, as well as the balance of Italy.” Especially because if Italy has managed to reduce its deficit, its debt is still very high and should not be stabilized before 2028.
Faced with uncertainties related to the commercial war, Rome has also reviewed its growth prognosis by 2025, 0.6% against 1.2% before, which suggests an activity in slow chamber. The Government also provides 0.8% by 2026, against 1.1% they expected so far. However, deficius forecasts were maintained, with 3.3% of GDP in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 and 2027. Under the famous 3% threshold established by European rules.
Source: BFM TV
