The airline is preparing for significant turbulence. In question, the customs application of the Trump administration that will have, according to an Allianz note, consequences both in supply and demand.
As for demand, inflationary fears and uncertainties related to the deterioration of diplomatic relations “could weigh on tourism” in the United States.
“In fact, Canada and Mexico represent 52% (37 million) of the total tourists visiting the United States every year. Depending on customs and border protection services in the United States, the number of visitors that cross the borders of North and South has already decreased in an annual change in February and -8% in March,” you can read.
“Consequently, a slowdown in tourism will not only affect US and regional carriers such as Air Canada and Aeromerxico, but also all aerial groups whose income is exposed to the US market,” said Allianz.
-17% of European tourists in March
According to the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), tourism that enters the United States from Western Europe fell from -17% in the annual change in March and -7% in the annual change during the first three months of 2025, Germany (-28% in the annual change) and Spain (-25% in the annual sliding) registering the stronger decreases.
“North America airlines now provide the lowest global growth in their turnover in 2025 (+1%) and already report a 10% drop in the billing in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter. However, the cooling of cheesene prices (-22% in the annual change) should partially amortize the clash,” we can read.
On the offer side, the insurer estimates that these surcharges will further accentuate the shortage of new aircraft and increase their prices.
“The airlines now face an aircraft cost outbreak (+16%) and a limited offer, remaining 10% deliveries at the levels of before the pandemic and a record book of 17,000 aircraft that still aggravate delays,” he said.
New more expensive aircraft for 20%
“The new customs tasks threaten to make the complex supply chains of Boeing and Airbus more expensive, both with production facilities in the United States and more than half of its suppliers abroad,” says Allianz.
Remember, for example, that Boeing should import many parts of Europe, pieces that will be subject to 20% surcharges if Donald Trump applies their plan.
“This will result in an increase of at least 10% of the company’s production costs, once the highest customs duties have entered into force (SAFFRON is the main non -American provider). For Airbus, the United States is the main supplier (2,000 suppliers distributed in 40 states), with the key production sites in Alabama, Mississippi and Florida. Components necessary for the plans of your plans of your plans, We We Lad.
“The price of aircraft has increased by 16% in the last five years and prices should continue to increase by around 20% by 2030,” added the insurer.
Source: BFM TV
