The Pension Guidance Council (COR) divided by two its estimate of the pension system deficit by 2030, 0.2% of GDP, but pointed out that by 2070 to 1.4% of GDP, according to its annual report consulted on Friday by AFP.
Last year, the COR, attached to Matignon but worked independently, provided a deficit of 0.4% of GDP in 2030, which then estimated at 0.8% of GDP in 2070. In 2024, the balance of the pension system (basic regimes and additional regimes) has a deficit of 1.7 billion euros (0.1% of GDP). A 0.2% GDP deficit in 2030 would represent 6,600 million euros.
Even if “the expense increases little (13.9% of GDP in 2024, 14.2% in 2070), resources decrease even more (13.9% of GDP in 2024, 12.8% in 2070)”, established the horn in this document that must be officially published next week. In 2024, retirement expenses represent 407 billion euros. Among the countries followed by the CR, “France is the second country (after Italy) where the proportion of public retirement expense in GDP is the highest.”
At a time when social couples discuss the means to rebalance the system by 2030, the Cro emphasizes that “mobilizable levers (…) are not equivalent from the point of view of their macroeconomic effects.” The guidance council distinguishes four: “Moderation of the increase in net pensions of the samples, the increase in employee pension contributions, the increase in employers’ pension contributions and the retirement age that allows an increase in employment rates.”
Three “recessive” tracks
For the horn, the first three clues are “recessive.” The first two “reduce net income and, therefore, the demand for households, which weakens GDP.” The third option “increases the cost of labor, which reduces investment and employment and, therefore, also GDP”. The recessive effect of these three ways corresponds to “a reduction in the fiscal and social income of public administrations” and strengthens “the difficulties in financing public spending in addition to pensions, such as school, health, security, etc.”, according to cor.
On the contrary, in his eyes, a decrease in retirement age corresponds “to an enrichment of the country (increased GDP per capita)”. A proposal that runs the risk of erecting unions, which require a decrease in the current initial age, which the highly disputed reform of 2023 will gradually increase to 64 years.
Source: BFM TV
