Some economic tremors at the beginning, then the great breakdown. A France stopped. Following the solution, CAC 40 had won 3% in a week. Volatility levels have reached an unprecedented record since Krach in October 1987. French rates have been tense.
It should be said that, for a few days, some scenarios increased the fear of coexistence to the left. Huguette Bello, communist president of the meeting region, then deputy Lucie Castet was even mentioned in Matignon. A scenario that has strengthened environmental feet.
Finally, the worst did not take place. It is true that the investment fell 1.6% in 2024 (against +3.1% in 2023), employment gives signs of weakness and savings are starting.
But growth still reached 1.2% during the year. Therefore, the French economy generally turned at its potential rhythm. We have not lost a quarter of growth, unlike the worst scenarios planned at that time.
An seized democracy
The real cost of this solution is political. During the past year, France has been institutionally paralyzed. The Assembly and the Senate no longer agrees in any text, everything now goes through joint mixed commissions (CMP) where senatorial law is in a position of force. Result: It is in the Senate that the final arbitrations are performed.
The great winner, in this configuration, is called Bruno Retilleau. The head of Senators LR has managed to get out of the game, to the point of establishing itself as a possible presidential figure.
On the contrary, the Executive and the former majority are permanently weakened. The government is avoided, and the country that has become unfoundable.
No more important economic bill has been adopted. Since October, 130 texts have been examined … Including 125 proposals of laws, without impact study. How much did you remember? Maybe the end of life. The fight against drug traffickers. But economically? Nothing.
The simplification bill does not finish being examined. Dupomba people about agriculture are not always adopted. On the other hand, we continue to vote symbolic resolutions such as repeal, without effect, of pension reform last week. It is the village of the potmkin policy. Simulation and concealment of power in all floors.
The budget, the only text that counts
The only really binding text is the budget. And it is perhaps the heaviest consequence of this solution: it is now necessary to have a financial law without the majority.
The 2025 budget was a DIY without guideline, born of three successive governments. The 2026 could hardly do it worse. In Bercy, some simply expect to “make possible the less stupid budget” … everything is said.
A new dissolution in sight?
As of July 8, Emmanuel Macron can dissolve again. Will you make this risky bet for the second time? Nothing is excluded.
A recent Elabe survey for the gallery on Sunday and BFMTV shows that two out of three French do not want it. Nicolas Sarkozy, says in private that Emmanuel Macron will not hesitate. The president, on the other hand, formally excluded him during a dinner at Elysée at the end of May.
But with this term of five years, only one thing is safe: everything is possible.
Source: BFM TV
