French growth is expected to undergo a net brake in 2025, with an increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) expected at 0.6% after 1.1% in 2024, in a context of budgetary restrictions and global economic uncertainty, said Insee Wednesday.
“Little by little, the Euro zone leaves its lethargy, despite the investment of the exchanges of the world”, with an awakening of investment in particular, but “the French economy does not seem to evolve in tune with the continent,” says the National Institute of Statistics in his note to trial.
The Insee forecast is lower than that of the Government, which depends on the growth of 0.7%. After +0.1% in the first quarter, the public body provides a 0.2% increase in GDP in each of the following three quarters.
A savings peak
Traditional French growth pillar, household consumption would only increase moderately (0.7% after 1.0% in 2024), at the same rate as purchasing power (after 2.5%), despite associated inflation, which is expected around 1% at the end of the year.
After 18.8% in the first quarter, a peak in 45 years (excluding the health crisis), the home savings rate would decrease a little to a bit of 18.2% during the year (and even at 17.3% at the end of the year), remaining at a high level, an environmental waiting sign -e -ver.
Investments would continue to deteriorate, but less strongly (-0.5%after -1.3%), significantly between companies (-0.8%) and households (-0.6%), the construction of new homes that show signs of recovery. Investments in public administrations would enter into negative territory (-0.6%).
French manufacturers losing market share
Companies would also see their deteriorated situation, suffering higher interest rates for their new credits and, for the greatest of them, of a surcharge provided for the 2025 budget.
Darking more the table, the support of foreign trade with the growth observed in 2023 and 2024 would erase: even eliminated 0.7 growth points, the French industrialists lost market share.
In Vise’s figure at 0.1 GDP point in 2025 The impact for France on the shock of US customs tasks, both for direct commercial impact and uncertainty and financial tensions it generates, and from 0.4 to 0.6 points in 2026 depending on whether or not there are response measures or not.
Source: BFM TV
