“Signs of worrying postponement”: Chinese products have flooded France since the United States closed, exports have increased by 24% in May

The fears of a great spill of Chinese products in Europe are strengthening. Exports of the Middle Empire to France have increased very clearly: 24% in May compared to the same period last year, according to BFM commercial calculations, of recent Chinese customs data.

From the beginning of the year, France imported 15.35 billion euros in China goods (6.8% more than last year).

This dynamic, particularly animated in May, also affects other European countries. Germany has imported almost 40 billion euros in Chinese products this year (+12%) and all EU member states are already in 186 billion (+7%) in five months.

May data represent “probably a peak”, specifies Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie, of the Conjunction Pole of the Rexecode Research Institute, “because these growth rates, about +20 % for a year, are not tenable over time.”

But they can be “interpreted as the first signs of a disturbing postponement” of Chinese industrialists to Europe, while the “substantive trend is that of the continuous excavation of our commercial deficit towards China,” continues the economist interviewed by BFM Business. The latter estimates that the country already represents 60% of our trade deficit in goods.

European industry in great danger

At the same time, direct trade between the United States and China has clearly slowed down (-34.5% in May and -9.4% since the beginning of the year), according to these recent data. Retention for the customs duties of Donald Trump, the colossal Chinese industrial power could now become even more towards Europe to sell its products.

Especially because domestic demand in China is currently too low to absorb the gigantic commercial surplus (almost 1,000 billion euros) of the country of Xi Jinping.

The risks could still increase if Donald Trump applies high customs duties in countries (Vietnam, Mexico …) that China uses today to avoid customs barriers.

“As of July 9, the entry into force of the prices of Day of liberation, Especially in Vietnam (46%) could change the situation. When China can no longer use the deviant export routes used to request, then the spill of European markets could be amplified, “analyzes Célia Colin, responsible for monitoring China at the Rexecode Institute.