The French economy registered a modest growth of 0.1% in the second quarter, still estimates the banque of France in its monthly situation of situation published on Wednesday, where it observes the first negative effects of the increase in the tasks of US customs.
After a first quarter in which GDP has already believed only 0.1%, Insee will publish its first estimate for the second quarter on July 30. For its part, the National Statistics Institute expects GDP to increase by 0.2%.
The two institutions anticipate an annual growth of 0.6%, the government still bet at 0.7%.
The Bank of France observes that the increase in American customs tasks is beginning to weigh on commercial activity.
She questions them on this topic since April and June data confirm an increase in direct and indirect effects, which include uncertainty, the evolution of competition, especially Chinese, repercussions on supply chains …
According to the survey, 6% of the companies questioned, by weight of these companies in added value, declare a negative impact on their volume of activity, 8% in the manufacturing industry, 6% in market services and 1% in the building.
The food industry is the most affected, with an average effect of -2.6% in the activity of the sector, particularly concentrated in the wine sector. Among the other affected sectors are wood printing industries, particularly due to their cooperation and packaging activity for the wine sector.
Good surprise in construction
The month of June, however, brought good surprises, reveals the survey conducted with 8,500 business leaders.
After the three bridges that weighs the activity in May, it “clearly recovered” in the industry, says the banquera of France, even surpassing the anticipations of business leaders.
It leaves “in almost all” subsegments “with the exception of clothing and wood paper. It also undertakes the increase in commercial services, again” at a more sustained rate than expected by business leaders last month. “
This is also the case in the building, where the bosses were fortunately surprised.
For July, business leaders believe that the activity should continue to progress in the industry, more moderately in services and evolve little in the building.
Source: BFM TV
