The excavation of the French public deficit since the arrival of Emmanuel Macron at the head of the State is explained by the fall in the mandatory tax rate, says a note of Ofce, a research center attached to the Po Paris sciences.
Economists of the French Observatory for economic conditions (AFCE) refute in parallel in parallel to drift in public spending during the period, in this working document published on Friday, while François Bayrou must specify the budget savings clues next week.
As a result, the difference in the deficit and, therefore, increased the debt, has been extended since 2019 with our neighbors to the euro zone.
The abolition of housing tax for homes and the decrease in employers social security contributions for companies are the main factors to reduce mandatory taxes, according to the OFCE.
Towards a sharp increase in unemployment
In its new simulations, based on the budget and structural level in the medium term (PSMT) transmitted last October to the European Commission and updated in April, Peausum would be reached in 2029, to 121.7% of GDP.
The OFCE also expects the unemployment rate, currently by 7.4%, rises to 8.1% this year and 8.9% in 2026, then 9% stabilize in 2027 for three years, before decreasing by 2030. For its part, it inserts anticipates an unemployment rate to 7.7% at the end of 2025.
The Auditors Court estimated the necessary efforts at the end of July of 105 billion, an additional expense or income) to bring GDP in 2029 to the government.
Prime Minister François Bayrou must present his public finance recovery plan on Tuesday afternoon, with the aim of giving 40 billion euros in savings in the 2026 budget that will be examined in Parliament in autumn.
Source: BFM TV
