It is a financial and political puzzle for the Prime Minister, François Bayrou, who reveals on Tuesday the main orientations of the 2026 budget. The Head of Government plans a large screw tour of 40 billion euros in savings, in addition to increasing the budget of the armies.
Whatever the meaning in which we do it, solving the equation seems to be a mathematical feat, since the financial room for the maneuver is reduced.
Objective: Bring the 4.6% of GDP deficit next year, against 5.8% in 2024. The set in an flammable and uncertain international context, among commercial tensions: Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the products of the European Union would be taxed at 30% and military, which took Emmanuel Macron to ask for an additional effort of 3.5 billion for defense.
An additional envelope that the prime minister had to integrate, promising the AFP not to “leave any floating expense.”
Politically, Prime Minister’s support base seems more fragile than ever. And all on the chess board, starting with the national rally that arises as a referee of censorship, prepares its red lines, after having reversed the government of Barnier the past fall in the budget.
Suffice it to say that François Bayrou, who will be expressed from 4 pm surrounded by some ministers (Éric Lombard, Catherine Vautrin, Amélie de Montchalin, François Rebsamen and Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet), with infographics in support, walks on a cable. It is equivalent to “carrying the Himalayas from the north face to winter, and we are in shorts,” metaphorizes a government member.
The Prime Minister, who concentrates his energy in the development of these Finance Law projects, decreases over all records of the “deadly trap” that awaits the country, in front of the debt wall that reached 114% of GDP in March. A fight made by his political DNA.
“Coherent Plan”
“Not offering a response from the nation, it would be a cowardice dedicated to the most serious accidents,” he told AFP.
A dramatization of the problems aimed at improving the acceptability of a note that promises to be salty, with 40 billion euros in requested budget effort.
With “two components”: one turned to “a return to a bearable balance in public finances.” And the other of “production support”.
The Executive tried to clear the land when receiving political groups upstream in Bercy, a work that will be broadcast in September.
Above all, the fair of ideas was particularly flourishing. To the point that Bercy gave Matignon “a copy at 45 billion”, to “give an option between options,” according to an executive advisor.
Marmorean, François Bayrou, who presented his intentions on Friday to Emmanuel Macron, promised “efforts here and there” in tax matters but without increase in generalized taxes. For example, the contribution of the high income established last year must be remodeled and renewed, according to a ministerial source.
Deposits
The State as a whole will have to tighten the belt, causing large drops of credits in the ministries, as well as in the communities.
Among the clues that have the rope, the identical renewal of certain expenses between 2025 and 2026, without taking into account inflation. A “White Year” whose performance varies according to the retained perimeter. This frost could, for example, extend to the Income Tax scale. And, after large calls to use retirees, pensions could also join inflation.
Rabot’s strokes are also mentioned in different machines: tax niches, public aid to companies or even in state agencies and operators, some of which are sentenced to abolition.
A new controversy is already coming, a new adjustment of unemployment insurance rules, while Emmanuel Macron said Sunday that he intended to finance the military effort for “more production and more activity.” Which revives speculation around a work time survey or vacation elimination.
Other savings deposits in the medical transport invoice, long -term conditions or illness license have been identified.
The left dreams of obtaining a tax inspired by the French economist Gabriel Zucman in “Ultra-Rich”, with 2% per year of his inheritance, for an annual yield of 20 billion euros. A red line for the macronista camp.
Source: BFM TV
