This is the announcement that makes the greatest amount of ink flow. The announcement of François Bayrou on Tuesday, July 15 to suppress two holidays is perhaps the most concrete disappointment and revival plan of the activity presented by the Head of Government. If the opposition and unions are against this project, economists are not much more excited.
Starting with Bruno Cavalier, the chief economist of the Oddo BHF corridor, author of a Vitriolo note on Wednesday.
“This” moment of truth “in public finances […] It contains some laudable but shy efforts to slow social spending, preserves companies more or less, but everything is sharp enough to dislike everyone, writes to the economist. If this plan is finally implemented, it will lead to increase the working time in 18 minutes and 22 seconds per week and to reduce public service personnel by 0.05%. Waouh! “, He scoundrel.
The elimination of two holidays would work active in employment 16 more hours in the year, that is actually more than 18 minutes when it is based on the number of weeks of a year.
If Bruno Cavalier greets, with cuts of 43.8 billion euros planned in 2026, the government’s desire to point out “a moderation of public spending, particularly in social security and local communities, the two positions have been reduced more”, fears that the Assembly rejects this plan.
“Less important than retirement age”
Even in these abolished vacation, other economists judge that this measure is likely to improve the employment rate in the country.
“This debate on holidays in a long-term perspective seems less important to me than retirement age,” said economist Christian de Boissieu, Professor Emeritus at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. He will inform 3.5 or 4 billion euros per day, but I suspect this approach. The prime minister did not quote Pentecost on Monday […] But we do not know who works, who does not work and suddenly informs much less than expected. “
The challenge in France is to improve the employment rate (the participation of 15-64 years that work), which certainly increases but that remains in 69.5% one of the lowest in Europe due to a higher unemployment rate than in the other countries of the old continent and a lower retirement age. This employment rate is, for example, 82.3% in the Netherlands, 77.6% in Germany or 76.2% in Sweden, according to the OECD.
By eliminating holidays, work in the work will work more, but that will not have a consequence of inactive or unemployed people.
Finally, this austerity cure with almost 44 billion euros in less public spending will not be without consequences in the activity.
In a context of international tensions and economy in slow chamber in Europe, these cuts in public spending could accentuate the different French growth, which is expected at 1.2 % in 2026, according to Bercy’s hypothesis.
But “the loss of growth is only transient, the IFRAP Foundation is carried, and if the adjustment of public finances is accompanied by a fall in the mandatory taxes capable of improving the situation of companies, we can even expect competitiveness profits and a real start of reindustrialization.”
Source: BFM TV
