While geopolitical threats worsen, most of the French business leaders remain in “a waiting position, and see”, or even in an “incredible state”, according to a study by the Institute of Geopolitics and Business of Essec, a great French business school, with the Opinionway Institute*.
Its members observe that “only a minority of managers has chosen to take into account geopolitical risks in the design of business models, and a minority still implements a plan to achieve it.”
Russian threats and undervalued Chinese
However, the risks are already tangible to the managers surveyed. The overwhelming majority of them (97%) declare that their company has already been affected by a recent geopolitical event, beginning with the increase in raw materials and the energy born of the war in Ukraine, but also due to supply ruptures (46%) and cyber attacks. Some leaders also observe more unexpected effects, such as the demobilization of their team (20%), concerned about news developments.
The last indicates that “Russian and Chinese threats” in the European economy are underestimated by business leaders, unlike “economic predation logic”, which is better identified.
The commercial war relaunted by the United States is considered the most significant risk (30%) before the loss of sovereignty in the data (17%) and the war in Ukraine (13%). The Russian threat to Europe and tensions in the Taiwan Strait only care as a concern about 8% and 4% of those questioned. A study of Bloomberg However, he estimated that a war in Taiwan could amputate the GDP of the European Union to 10%, due to the scarcity of semiconductors, an economic shock twice more violent than the Cavid-19 pandemic.
“War Fog”
In spite of everything, these risks remain secondary or absent from the strategy of 53% of the companies surveyed and one in five leaders admits totally not won. The study detects in particular a deposit to handle the consequences of these risks internally. A clear majority of the bosses surveyed (59%) say they would recover from external instructions, their headquarters or public authorities. They declare that they are waiting for the latter a clearer speech about threats, considering “confused” (52%) or “anxiety” (42%) of the expression “War economy” used by Emmanuel Macron in 2022.
Therefore, its members recommend the acquisition of internal skills to develop the analysis and adapt the strategies.
*The opinionway institute questioned the 100 members of the directors or executive committees of the companies with 250 or more employees, which reflects the diversity of the size and sectors of the French economy, between June 30 and July 11. The opinion route specifies that the results should be read taking into account the margins of uncertainty: 4.4 to 10 points to the majority for a sample of 100 people.
Source: BFM TV
