The French economy remains afloat. Despite a political and budgetary crisis harmful to the confidence of households and companies, the growth of the tricolor should reach 0.7% this year, according to the last projection of the banquera of France published on Monday. This is 0.1 points more than the previous forecast published by the institution in June.
This new estimate is in line with that of the resigning government that took advantage of the growth of the GDP of 0.7% in 2025. For its part, Insee indicated its prognosis last week. The Statistics Institute now expects to see that tricolor activity increases by 0.8% this year.
Growth 2026 and 2027 revisions decrease slightly
With the support of the manufacturing industry, “the growth in the first half has been positively surprised, carried by the positive contribution of the variations of shares, which must be followed by a landing movement and a net export rebound in the third quarter,” says the banker of France that predicts a growth of 0.3% between July and October.
The institution, on the other hand, revives, slightly decreases its growth forecast by 2026 (0.9%, -0.1 points) and 2027 (1.1%, -0.1 point). In fact, if household consumption and private investment should reaffirm for the next two years, the “most uncertain national context” and the most unfavorable international environment “, particularly due to a higher rate of euro change and a higher oil price” forced economists from the bank of France to moderate their relative optimism.
Consumption would resume a bit in 2026
Beyond the growth review by 2025, “the good news that emerges from this projection” is the confirmation of the slowdown in inflation, says Olivier Garnier, chief economist of the bank of France. The increase in consumer prices, in harmonized terms (IPCH), would be limited to 1% in 2025 “due to the decrease in energy prices and moderation of services services.” Then it would start up, respectively to 1.3% and 1.8% in 2026 and 2027, slightly below the 2% target set by the ECB.
For their part, wages continued in 2025 increased faster than prices. As a result, purchasing power would increase by 1% during the year. This is not really seen at this stage, household consumption has retreated in the first half. It would also increase only by 0.4% throughout the year, after +1% in 2024.
But “there are specific factors that weighed in consumption” at the beginning of the year, the Olivier Garnier temperaments, evoking the withdrawal of car purchases after their high increase in the late 2024 (households anticipated changes in the Malus bonus car) and the sharp fall in energy consumption in the second quarter, a consequence of particularly mild temperatures.
The political situation has also undermined the consumer’s morals that preferred to play the prudence letter if we believe that the savings rate that approached 19% in the second quarter. In spite of everything, if “the consumption and investment of companies remained hindered in the AVE of 2026 for uncertainties in fiscal policy,” the consumption of households supported by purchasing power profits would begin and increased by 1% next year and 1.1% in 2027.
Source: BFM TV
