Giorgia Meloni’s Italy can boast a certain economic stability, a rare word on the peninsula in recent decades. Unemployment is falling, Italian debt rates remain lower than those of France – a symbol of confidence found in the markets – and exports are breaking records. The Italian economy has finally stopped sailing from emergency to emergency.
But beneath this calmer surface, the recovery remains fragile. Growth by 2024 will reach a maximum of 0.5%, insufficient to compensate for the delay accumulated since the pandemic. And the public debt, at 135% of GDP, remains one of the heaviest in Europe, well above the French 114%, which has already been criticized by Brussels.
Purchasing power, the Achilles heel of the recovery
Tangible sign of economic malaise: wage stagnation. The average annual gross income reaches only 31,856 euros, compared to 42,662 euros in France. In real terms, Italian wages have even fallen since Covid, eroding purchasing power and living standards.
This situation fuels a diffuse feeling of frustration. In a country where the small middle class remains the basis of local stability, the perception of collective impoverishment becomes a major political risk for the ruling coalition.
A demographic time bomb
Another area of concern: demographics. The country recorded 360,000 births in 2024, a drop of more than 2% compared to the previous year. In less than two decades, births have fallen by 35%. The causes are known: low wages, high housing prices, lack of effective family policies and female unemployment rates that are still among the highest in Europe.
The fall in the birth rate directly threatens the balance of pensions. Paradoxically, this is an issue that Giorgia Meloni had placed at the center of her political project, promising to make it an “absolute priority.” But three years later, the results are barely being felt.
Added to this is an exodus of young workers: in 2024, more than 156,000 Italians left the country, with an average age of 33 years. A deficit of life forces that further accentuates the imbalance of the social model.
The Divided But Popular Meloni Method
On the political front, Giorgia Meloni remains a divisive figure. His detractors, especially on the left, accuse him of turning a blind eye to the country’s structural difficulties. Il Manifesto, a left-wing newspaper, even speaks of a “game of hide-and-seek”: the Prime Minister highlights visible successes – jobs, contained debt, government stability – carefully avoiding more explosive topics such as slowing growth or trade tensions with Washington.
However, the popularity of the leader of the Brothers of Italy resists. Nearly 80% of business leaders approve of his policy, attracted by his budgetary stability and economic pragmatism. And in public opinion, the right-wing coalition continues to be supported by more than 42% of Italians, a score higher than that obtained during its 2022 elections.
“Credibility rediscovered” and absence of alternatives
How to explain this political solidity? Part of the answer is in the image: three years after the end of the Berlusconi era, many Italians believe that their country has regained international credibility. Financial markets, long distrustful, also seem reassured by more orthodox management of public accounts.
Finally, as the founder of the polling institute YouTrend, Lorenzo Pregliasco, points out, this lasting support can also be explained by the lack of a credible alternative.
Source: BFM TV
