The year 2026 will be bleak for the labor market. And rightly so, Unédic foresees a clear deterioration in the unemployment insurance deficit to 1.3 billion euros, compared to only 100 million euros in 2025, in a context of stagnation in the number of job seekers receiving compensation at around 2.6 million.
Unédic will then request from the Government “a review of the state rate” on Unemployment Insurance income “for this year 2026”, indicates the organization in a statement released this Wednesday, October 22.
More than 60,000 million euros of debt in 2026
Since 2023, these levies “have paralyzed its debt reduction,” says Unédic: in fact, they have reduced “Unédic’s ability to pay the Unemployment Insurance debt” by 13 billion euros. This should therefore rise to 59.5 billion by the end of 2025 and then to 60.8 billion by the end of 2026.
“This situation weakens the role of unemployment insurance as a social and economic buffer, at a time when the labor market is contracting,” he adds.
There will be no net job creation before 2027
Unédic’s forecasts are based on economic growth limited to 0.7% this year and 0.9% next year. A modest growth that is explained, according to Unédic, by “the particularly unstable French political context.” “In 2027, growth would increase slightly but remain modest (+1.2%),” he continues.
By 2025, the organization forecasts 60,000 net job losses, before stabilization next year, and 160,000 net job creations in 2027.
In fact, in its latest financial forecasts in June, the organization expected a deficit twice as large in 2025 (200 million euros), but more than three times smaller in 2026 (400 million). Proof that political instability, especially evident last September, may have influenced the significant deterioration of the Unemployment Insurance deficit for next year.
Consequently, “the number of unemployed compensated by unemployment insurance would stagnate at around 2.6 million between the end of 2025 and the end of 2026, before falling slightly to 2.5 million at the end of 2027,” estimates Unédic.
Source: BFM TV
