A shock of considerable magnitude. In 2022, the rise in hydrocarbon prices together with the depreciation of the euro have caused the price of French imports to skyrocket. To the point that this outbreak could mean a loss of real income for France of 85,000 million euros, or 3.2 points of GDP compared to 2019, according to a note from the General Directorate of the Treasury published this Wednesday.
In detail, this loss would come to 56,000 million euros due to the increase in the gas bill (the cost of supply increased by around 650% on average in 2022 compared to 2019) and 29,000 million due to the increase in the gas bill. oil (+77%). Electricity is not taken into account here, as France is not a net importer in normal times.
Public finances bore 52% of the shock
The author of the note, Guillaume Clavéres, points out, however, that these results must be taken with caution because they do not take into account changes in behavior that could make it possible to reduce the loss of income linked to the energy shock to 2.5 or even 1.5 GDP points. For example, when companies decide to pass on higher energy prices to the price of exports or when import volumes decline compared to 2019 in response to higher energy prices.
Still, the impact is brutal for both businesses and households. Without the intervention of the State, the first would have suffered a loss of 50,000 million euros (58% of 85,000 million) and the second of 32,000 million (37%), compared to 3,000 million for public administrations.
But, in fact, the State intervened through a series of measures aimed at mitigating the shock for households (exceptional energy check, tariff shield, fuel discount, etc.) and companies. So much so that public finances have finally supported in 2022 52% of the loss of income linked to the increase in energy prices, that is, a loss of 44,000 million euros. For companies, the loss amounts to 36,000 million euros (42%) after state intervention. Households would absorb 5,000 million euros in losses (6%).
“This compensation cannot be permanent”
If the state support measures have made it possible to limit inflation in France, “this compensation cannot be permanent”, estimates Guillaume Clavéres, for whom the cost of the energy shock should be better distributed between households and companies. In the first place, because this aid does not promote sobriety and slows down “the achievement of the objectives necessary for the climate transition and energy sovereignty.”
Then, because the financial support of the public powers for the consumption of hydrocarbons finances “a transfer of wealth to the countries that export gas and oil (the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia), whose real incomes are inflated due to an improvement in their conditions.” of trade” (the prices of its exports rise faster than those of its imports).
Finally, as they are financed with debt, “the support measures weigh the cost of our contemporary energy bill on the following generations,” concludes the Treasury.
Source: BFM TV
