Wage growth in the euro zone should be “very strong” next year, exceeding historical benchmarks and partly catching up with runaway inflation since 2021, according to a European Central Bank (ECB) article published on Monday.
This growth will reflect “some recovery between wages and the high inflation rates” observed since 2021, they point out.
In the euro zone, the annual rise in consumer prices certainly fell below the symbolic bar of 10% in December after a year and a half of uninterrupted rise.
But the work of undermining prices on wages means that to date “real wages are much lower” than in 2019, “before the pandemic” of Covid-19, the authors explain.
In the second quarter of 2022, the real annual growth rate of wages was negative, at -5.2%, in the euro zone, according to his article.
In France, half of business leaders surveyed by the Banque de France in December expected gains of at least 4% by 2023.
10.5% increase for German civil servants
In Germany, the Verdi service union is currently demanding a 15% wage increase for the approximately 160,000 employees of postal giant Deutsche Post, and 10.5% for the 2.5 million employees of federal states and municipalities.
Strong future wage increases will also reflect the good health of the labor market, despite the slowdown in the economy, says the ECB.
Gross wages in the euro zone are expected to have increased by 4.5% in 2022 and are expected to grow by 5.2% this year, according to the latest ECB forecasts.
In an interview with Le Monde, published on December 22, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said he expected a “normal” recovery in inflation, but ruled out “for the moment” a “wage spiral.” .-price” which would be detrimental to lowering inflation to 2%, the ECB’s target.
In the medium term, “downward pressure” will again affect wage growth due to the economic slowdown and uncertainty amid the Russian war in Ukraine, the authors of the ECB article conclude.
Source: BFM TV
