Whichever option is chosen, the unions are already promising to call for mobilization. The Government will unveil its pension reform on Tuesday with the central measure: a lowering of the legal retirement age to 65, or a postponement to 64, together with an acceleration of the Touraine reform, which has provided since 2014 for a gradual extension of the contribution period.
For once, the unions are unanimous: it is out of the question to validate a reform that contains an age measure considered unfair, especially for people who started working early. Thus, some worker representatives suggest taking other paths to settle the issue of financing the system, which should have a deficit of around 10,000 million euros per year in the coming years, according to the Pension Guidance Council (HORN).
Unions willing to increase dues
But the options are limited. In addition to an age measure, the balance of the pension system can be affected by either an increase in pension contributions or a reduction in pensions. In the CFDT, the Unsa or the CFTC, it is rather the first solution that is defended:
“We told the CFTC, and with others, that we could discuss the issue of contributions (…),” the president of the union Cyril Chabanier recalled on BFMTV, denouncing the government reform that “concerns only employees “. . “No effort is required on the part of the companies. So we could ask for an effort from companies and employees. We were willing to discuss an increase of 2 to 3 euros in contributions for employees, and 4 to 5 euros for companies For a company of 100 people, that made 500 euros more per month (…) That is not what is going to call into question the employment policy”, explained the union leader.
According to him, this proposal would make it possible to do “half the way” with “six billion euros” that would go to the coffers. “So yes for a reform, yes for saying that there is a deficit, but there is not only the solution of postponing the age”, concluded Cyril Chabanier.
The Government rules out any increase in contributions
The OFCE economist, Eric Heyer, believes that the expected deficit of the pension system is not explosive but that another problem will arise without reform: “There is no fire in the lake. (…) But without reform, retirees will lose some 20% of their purchasing power compared to that of workers. It’s quite a violent shock. So, either we continue like this, or we ask workers to make a little effort through contributions,” he suggested in BFM Business. According to him, “it would be an increase of 4 euros per month per employee. It is not an extraordinary scare either, but it is true that in a period of falling purchasing power it can be a bit difficult, “he admitted.
Above all, the increase in contributions necessary to balance the pension system would actually be greater since it would be a question of increasing them by 4 euros “per month and per year”, Eric Heyer specified with the Telegram. In other words, the increase would be 4 euros the first year, 8 euros the second, 12 euros the third and so on until 2027. Enough to cover the deficit in “nine years”, according to the economist.
A proposal quickly dismissed by the Government: “We do not want to raise taxes”, Bruno Le Maire recalled a few days ago. Last October, Emmanuel Macron already rejected this solution, which, according to him, would consist of having an average of “400 euros more per worker in social security contributions” paid in 2027. “It is less purchasing power,” the head of state had hammered .
loss of net wages
An overrated level according to Michaël Zemmour, professor at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. In a blog post published on the Alternatives Economiques website, the economist tried to measure the magnitude of the increase in prices that would make it possible to cover the deficit. Based on the COR report, he indicates that “contributions should be increased by 0.8 points by 2027 (0.7 points in the most favorable agreement)”. An increase that some unions suggest sharing equally between employees (+0.4%) and employers (+0.4%).
The fact remains that, in the event that the balance of the system were based entirely on employee contributions, the average net salary would be 2,674.61 euros in 2027, compared to 2,702 euros in constant contributions, assesses Michaël Zemmour , that is, a loss of more than 27 euros per month for employees (ie almost 330 euros per year). For Smic employees, this increase in contributions would mean a net loss of 14 euros per month in 2027, or 168 euros per year.
However, the increase in the contribution rate of employees (+CSG) would be gradual, up to 0.16% per year to reach 22.8% in 2027. This would correspond to 5 euros less than the net salary in the payroll in 2023 for a remuneration equivalent to the average (3 euros minimum wage), 11 euros in 2024 (5 euros minimum wage), 16 euros in 2025 (8 euros), 22 euros in 2026 (11 euros) and finally almost 28 euros in 2027.
Source: BFM TV
