Russia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 2.1% in 2022, withstanding the impact of heavy Western sanctions better than expected after Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine, official statistics show on Monday.
“GDP fell by 2.1%” in 2022 compared to the previous year, the Statistics Agency (Rosstat) said in a statement. The Ministry of Economic Development said in September that it expected a contraction in GDP of 2.9%, while the Central Bank of Russia expected it to be “around -3%”.
And according to an estimate given on January 17 by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian GDP would contract by 2.5% in all of 2022, far from the apocalyptic forecasts forecast last spring, after the Russian offensive on its Ukrainian territory. . neighbor.
While many observers question the reliability of the figures presented by the Russian authorities, due in particular to the opacity of a number of economic indicators since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the Russian economy appears to have withstood the impact of Western sanctions. At the end of January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had indicated in a report to expect “a more moderate economic contraction than expected in Russia in 2022 (estimated at -2.2% against -3.4% expected)”, while estimating that it should be “followed by slightly positive growth in 2023”.
inflation at 12%
The Rosstat statistics come on the eve of Vladimir Putin’s long-awaited speech in parliament, which will come three days before the first anniversary of the launch of Russia’s offensive in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, which triggered a hail of sanctions. International against Russia.
Inflation stabilized in January at almost 12% year-on-year in Russia, according to Rosstat, after having shot up to a twenty-year high last April (17.8% year-on-year) after the first Western sanctions. Prices, already on the rise in Russia due to the post-COVID-19 recovery and rising commodity prices, had seen a conflagration in the second quarter of 2022, in the weeks after the start of the Russian military intervention in Ukraine.
In early February, the Central Bank of Russia said it expected “annual inflation of 5-7% in 2023, to return to 4% in 2024.” Turning to GDP, Russian Central Bank President Elvira Nabiullina said she expected it to “be ‘positive’ again in the middle of this year.” As for GDP forecasts for 2023, “the range is between -1% and +1%,” either between a mild recession or moderate growth despite international sanctions, she told reporters.
Source: BFM TV
