Inflation, energy crisis… Despite the obstacles that companies have faced in recent months, the Banque de France confirmed on Wednesday the good resistance of the French economy. According to its latest survey of 8,500 companies, French GDP should grow by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023, “a little better than expected in our latest macroeconomic projections published in December,” explains the institution.
This modest growth is partly due to the resilience of the industrial and service sectors, which saw their activity grow by 0.2% in February. Industry business leaders also anticipate a further increase in activity in March, particularly in computer, electronic and optical products, pharmaceuticals and automobiles. The textile and clothing branch, on the other hand, would be in decline. Employers in the tertiary sector also expect an increase in activity in March, but less marked than in previous months.
On the contrary, construction activity remained stable in February and even fell in structural work, “in relation to the sharp decline in sales of new homes,” said Olivier Garnier, general director of the Banque de France. A trend that should continue in March.
As its governor, François Villeroy de Galhau, announced at the beginning of March, the Banque de France will also revise its growth forecast for the French economy upwards on March 20 for all of 2023, when it forecast +0.3% up to the moment.
Reduction of supply difficulties
In February, 33% of industrial companies said they still had supply difficulties. A stable figure for a month but with a sharp drop for a year (-21 points). On the other hand, the decline in construction continues with 24% of companies having supply difficulties, compared to 31% a month earlier. “Certain inputs, however, are mentioned again as a source of supply difficulties: wood, glass (agri-food sector), titanium, electronic components (aeronautics), roof tiles, slates (construction)”, tempers the Banque de France.
In addition, “according to the industrialists surveyed, the rate of increase in the prices of raw materials fell significantly in February and returned to a level now close to that observed before the Covid crisis”. As a result, the proportion of business leaders who reported increasing their prices in the industry in February continued to decline, from 32% a year ago to 24% today. Same observation in the construction sector (32% increased their prices, against 36% in February 2022). In services, this proportion reached 20%, close to that observed a year ago (19%).
For the month of March, the Banque de France expects a further easing of prices in construction (25%), services (18%) and industry (21%), but not in the food industry, where 30% of companies raised prices in February. and 40% are expected to do it again in March.
Source: BFM TV
