If the French economy weathers the headwinds fairly well this year, with growth estimated at 2.6/2.7%, the slowdown will be marked in 2023, most economists believe.
But how big will the brakes be? While the government rejects any idea of a recession with annual activity still rising 1% (versus +1.4% previously forecast), the Banque de France is less optimistic with a projection half as low: +0.5 %.
But “this projection is surrounded by very broad uncertainties linked to the evolution of the war in Ukraine”, as well as to the “quantities and prices of gas supplies” and “the duration of government measures to protect homes and businesses”. . says the institution.
“The European economy will suffer even more from supply restrictions”
An opinion shared by Reexecode analysts who simply see 0% French growth in 2023 for a year.
In concrete terms, Rexocode forecasts a global growth of +2.1% next year (compared to 2.7% in 2022), 0% in the euro zone (compared to +3.3% this year) and therefore 0% in France compared to +2.6% this year.
For the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, growth in 2023, on the contrary, will remain “positive”. “France’s fundamentals are strong enough for us to get through this crisis,” he said.
And despite the very risky side of medium-term forecasts, Bercy estimates that French growth will accelerate again from 2024 to +1.6%, then +1.7% in 2025 and 2026 and +1 .8% in 2027.
Source: BFM TV
