Will the Olympic Games affect the French economy? 500 days from the start of Paris 2024, this is the question that two deputies Stéphane Mazars (RE) and Stéphane Peu (Nupes) are trying to answer, leading a parliamentary mission on the subject, whose conclusions will be announced in June. . The two elected officials already recognize the difficulty of estimating the short- and long-term economic benefits of such an event.
However, experts from the Limoges Center for Sports Law and Economics (CDES) have tried to give an estimate. According to its 2017 report, the Paris Olympics could have an estimated global impact of between €5.3 billion and €10.7 billion for the territory of Île-de-France alone.
“The impact of tourism will condition for many the economic benefits of the Olympic Games in Île-de-France, said the deputy Stéphane Mazars last February. The host cities when they apply consider that tourism activity is a bit of a return on investment Tourism was expected to represent between 27 and 35% of the overall impact of the event.”
CDES representatives estimate that the tourist benefits of the Games would be between 1,430 million euros and 3,520 million euros.
“However, identifying the tourist benefits of the Games is equivalent to trying to isolate the impact of the event within an activity that is complex and multidimensional in nature, to the extent that the determinants of tourist activity are especially numerous: density of the hotel offer, course of the local currency, accessibility of transport, world economic situation, health situation, etc. ”, specify the deputies.
15 million tourists expected
The organizers hope to receive 15 million tourists on this occasion with an increase in tourist activity during the Olympic year and, on the other hand, a “leverage effect at the level of post-Olympic tourism.”
If the potential risks are numerous and also the Olympic Games can have a negative effect called “eviction effect”, that is, tourists who do not come precisely for the event. In other words, the 100 meter spectators only replace the Louvre visitors.
“An initial crowding out effect, all the stronger since Paris is already a top tourist destination, may consist of a certain discouragement for regular and local visitors, due to anticipated inconveniences related to the Games, such as congestion effects or price increases, specify the deputies in a report published in February. This displacement effect could be significant and certain actors, such as France Tourisme in Paris, are already expressing their concerns.
If tourism is the easiest “return on investment” to measure, Paris and France could benefit from the global influence of the event. Reports on the country from all over the world, French companies showing off their know-how, players from the economic world seduced during their visit… The possibilities are numerous.
Marseille rubs his hands
And not only for the capital. In Marseille, for example, which will host nautical events at its marina and soccer matches at the Vélodrome stadium, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry hopes to reap at least 100 million euros in economic benefits.
“Today the Olympic Games in France alone are more than 10 billion euros in economic benefits, we can expect at least 100 million euros only on our territory”, estimates Jean-Daniel Beurnier, member of the CCIAMP at BFM Marseille.
Will the Olympic Games create jobs? Hotels, construction, transport, restaurants… The Organizing Committee mentions the figure of 150,000 jobs created. An optimistic estimate. The Asteres firm has 130,000 jobs for global benefits of 8,700 million euros for the country.
“Our estimate refers to full-time equivalent jobs for one year,” the firm specifies in a note published last September. Some works already exist and are simply redistributed to Games activity.
However, the cabinet considers that spending is fairly well allocated.
A lesser effect if instead of investing in the Olympics these sums had been allocated to homes, estimates the cabinet. A transfer of this expense to the most modest households would have meant, according to the Asteres impact model, 8,000 million euros of added value but less than 77,000 job creation. It is the share of imports in household consumption that explains this gap.
London very optimistic about the “Olympic effect”
If this transfer had been made to wealthy households, for example via tax relief, the impact would have been even less with €6 billion in benefits and 57,000 jobs created by the high savings rate (27%) of this category of population.
However, these figures must be handled with caution. Impact studies of these major international events are far from an exact science. They are also very political. Among opponents who exploit them to denounce financial mismanagement and governments that inflate them to flatter their balance.
The British government thus advances positive spin-offs of between 11,000 and 53,000 million euros for the London 2012 Olympic Games. However, it is difficult to isolate the “Olympic Games” element in the attractiveness of London during the period.
There are cities where the event could contribute to development. This is the case for Barcelona, which likely benefited from the €9 billion poured into the city to host the 1992 Olympiad.
“The city had to be renewed and its economic development launched at the end of the Franco regime,” explains Jean-Jacques Gouguet in Le Monde, co-author of “Olympic Games from 1924 to 2024 – Impacts, economic consequences and legacy”. No one agreed on the strategy. The Olympic Games agreed city, province and capital. It was the catalyst for a public policy. From a strictly accounting point of view, the Olympic Games were in deficit. Economically, they allowed fifty years to be gained in Barcelona, everyone knows this, although no one has scientifically analyzed it.” All the evil we wish for in Paris.
Source: BFM TV
