There will probably be a before and after winter 2022-2023 for the French electrical system. This is one of the main lessons of the last winter press conference of the operator of the electric power transmission system. “Now we know how to better control our electricity consumption in all sectors”, rejoices Xavier Piechaczyk, president of RTE’s board of directors, recalling that France had experienced unprecedented electricity production crises for 35 or even 45 years for nuclear. or hydraulic.
But what would have happened if France had not lowered its consumption, either suddenly or voluntarily? If France had not had the same massive import capabilities? According to RTE, the country escaped 12 ecoWatt red signals this winter and was able to show its resilience by exceeding certain consumption peaks despite the stress.
Uncertainty factors removed one by one
It must be said that there was great concern as the winter period approached due to the multiple factors of uncertainty regarding the main determinants of security of supply, starting with the availability of the nuclear fleet. Added to the latter are the risks of tension in the gas supply and in European electricity exchanges, but also the scope of the response of the French, companies and communities to increases in electricity prices and calls for sobriety, without forgetting the harshness of winter. .
Finally, the real availability of the nuclear park was in line with the central forecast of RTE, the interconnection of the European countries, both in electricity and gas, worked without problems, without exchange restrictions and despite the particularly high gas prices. In addition, electricity consumption fell in an unprecedented way during the period, while the winter was relatively mild despite some marked cold snaps.
An “energy crisis” effect three times greater than the weather effect
The operator of the electricity transmission network gave initial information on the role of meteorological factors in this reduction in consumption during the winter of 2022-2023 compared to the historical average. Between mid-October and mid-November and then from Christmas to early January, the phases of high temperatures compared to the seasonal averages weighed more than the phases of cold temperatures, in the second week of December and between the end of January and the beginning of February.
>> Find our table of energy consumption in France and the evaluation of the risks of cuts.
“This net weather effect contributed 7 TWh to the drop in consumption,” says Thomas Veyrenc, Executive Director of Strategy, Forecasting and Assessment. A relatively small contribution compared to the effect of the energy crisis, which is estimated at 20 TWh, that is, three more than the meteorological effect.
RTE points out that the decrease in consumption affects all types of consumption with different intensity depending on the period. In the hot weeks, the industry effect was quite stable during the fall and winter. It is not sensitive to climatic variations and is more marked on some large industrial sites than on small ones. The effect in the tertiary and residential sectors is more pronounced in cold periods with consumption in these sectors more sensitive to the weather and heating, which represents the main lever for reducing consumption activated. A reaction consistent with the measures of the sobriety plan.
Orange and red ecoWatt signs without consumption modification and certain level of import
But winter was not a long, calm river for the French electrical system. Jean-Paul Roubin, Executive Director Clients, Markets and Operations, thus returned to December 12, which was the day on which the highest consumption was achieved, but did not result in an orange or red ecoWatt signal. To meet the current strong demand, France was able to use its nuclear leverage to the tune of 40 GW produced, which remains 10 GW below the historical average for this period. Up to 16 GW came from the hydraulic part, highly demanded throughout the day to limit the use of imports, whose contribution remained concentrated in the morning at 10 GW. Finally, the 3.5 GW of solar energy during the day, followed by the 5 GW of wind energy at night, allowed to alleviate the hydraulic stocks. Finally, fossil power plants have intervened, mainly gas, but also some oil and coal.
In general, the reductions in consumption due to the price and sobriety signal and the mobilization during the days of tension indicated by ecoWatt have allowed reducing the risk of tension and reducing the risk of load shedding. In fact, the drop and change in consumption combined with the 15 GW imported made it possible for an alert not to be triggered. But the slightest change in one of these two factors could have changed the situation. Thus, five ecoWatt orange signals would have been emitted in the event that imports were cut in half. Without a drop or change in consumption, your number would have risen to 7 with 2 more red signals. Ultimately, the combination of the two factors would have resulted in 8 orange and 12 red signals during the winter.
An encouraging episode in view of the following
For the operator of the electricity transmission system, the winter of 2022-2023 can generate optimism about the coming winters in electrical matters. “The Europe of electricity is concrete: electricity reaches the countries that need it most at the moment, observes Xavier Piechaczyk […] It is undeniable that the availability of nuclear energy continues to be a key factor, as is the development of renewables”. The president of the board of directors of RTE believes that the tertiary sector represents an important lever to seek significant savings in consumption. consumption analysis studies to determine the structure of sobriety between “the cyclical and what can become structural”.
Amid a wave of concern over major new cracks in three nuclear reactors, the Executive Director of Strategy, Foresight and Assessment took a soothing speech about the potential consequences of these discoveries: “You should be aware that these cracks are not a new of the same magnitude as when we discovered the phenomenon of stress corrosion cracking. To date, I think it does not fundamentally change the vision we have of winter 2023-2024.”
Source: BFM TV
