The long-term growth of the world economy should average 2.2% by 2030, according to a report published this Monday by the World Bank (WB), which would make this decade the weakest growth since the beginning of the century. This drop in growth should affect the most advanced countries, as well as developing and emerging countries, starting with China, the World Bank said in its report.
“China has played a leading role in global growth for a long time, but that is changing as its growth slowly slows. The question now is who will replace China in this role, and we believe it should not come from a country but a group of countries,” said the institution’s chief economist, Indermit Gill, during a conference call.
The effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on education
Among the causes of the slowdown in global potential growth, the World Bank identifies the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly its impact on the education of children and adolescents and the long-term effect that this will have on the economy . , as well as the Ukrainian war and the disruption of trade that it entails.
The World Bank also highlights that the impact on growth of the education gap caused by the pandemic “will go far beyond the horizon set by this report.”
A potential improvement of 0.7 percentage points
However, the institution estimates that global potential growth could improve by 0.7 percentage points on average if all countries carry out a series of reforms in this regard. This particularly concerns investment, which has also been falling since the pandemic, as well as women’s access to the labor market or even the improvement of access conditions to world trade.
The World Bank is also optimistic about the risk of fragmentation of the global economy, saying that “this is not certain to happen.” “The fact that China exports less, for example, is related to an increase in its domestic consumption, which is a good thing, not proof of fragmentation. If you look at services, you see an increase in their share of world trade. , which is also a good thing,” said Indermit Gill.
Source: BFM TV
