A wall of bankruptcies? After two years of falls in the number of company bankruptcies (2020 and 2021), the change in trend seems to be confirmed. According to Allianz Trade figures, after +48% in 2022, the number of business bankruptcies could still rise 41% this year to 59,000.
Enough to exceed pre-covid crisis levels with an increase of 15% compared to 2019.
“The normalization dynamic continues, but the rise in insolvencies also finds its source in the current economic context: the level expected in 2023 in France should exceed that observed in 2019 by +15%. We are not in a simple return to the pre-crisis level, but of course an excess, with a series of failures that we had not observed for a long time”, comments Maxime Lemerle, Head of Failure Studies at Allianz Trade.
Stabilization in 2024
This rebound is also a consequence of the “strong state support deployed to support companies in the face of the pandemic”, some of which were already in difficulties.
“To the ‘zombie’ companies that had been rescued during the pandemic and that little by little are missing, will be added the companies that will suffer from the current context. Precisely, the lack of consumer confidence, which is hindering sales, and inflation, which has an impact on costs, undoubtedly puts companies’ cash flow under pressure”, continues the manager.
According to figures from the Banque de France, between April 2022 and March 2023 there were 45,120 defaults compared to 30,285 the previous year. And note that the movement is more pronounced for SMEs (excluding micro-enterprises).
However, the situation should stabilize in 2024, according to Allianz Trade, with 57,000 expected failures (-2% compared to 2022 but +11% compared to 2019).
“We expect a slight decrease in insolvencies in France in 2024. The good news is that the increase should therefore come to an end. The less good thing is that the levels could remain high for some time,” concludes Laurent Treilhes , President of the Executive Committee of Allianz Trade in France.
Source: BFM TV
