For the first time in six months, China’s exports rebounded in March amid a rebound in activity at home and despite the risk of recession abroad threatening demand for Chinese goods.
Foreign sales of the Asian giant, which were in constant red numbers since October, rose 14.8% year-on-year in dollars in March, according to figures released Thursday by Chinese Customs.
Analysts surveyed by the Bloomberg agency expected a new fall (-7.1%), after that of the combined January-February (-6.8%), the only data published then.
The rebound is “a surprise,” says economist Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management.
“It is partly explained by a weak base effect compared to last year, when many factories were forced to close” due to covid-19, Zhiwei Zhang stresses.
A year ago, in March, the confinement of Shanghai in the midst of the pandemic had severely penalized activity in China and caused the drop in exports (-0.1%).
In recent months, sanitary restrictions in China, with repeated lockdowns and strict movement controls, have continued to severely penalize the operation of factories.
China finally lifted most of its health restrictions in December, paving the way for a gradual resumption of activity.
Catch up on the order
“Now that the factories are running at full capacity, they can catch up with the orders accumulated” in recent months, which has allowed exports to pick up, specifies Zhang Zhiwei, who however expects a respite in the short term.
The threat of recession in the United States and Europe, combined with runaway inflation, is actually helping to weaken international demand for Chinese goods.
China’s imports continued to fall in March (-1.4% in one year), but at a more moderate pace, a sign of a recovery in activity that is still struggling to stabilize.
Analysts expected a more marked drop (-6.4%).
In January-February, China’s purchases of foreign goods fell 10.2% year-on-year.
As for the trade surplus of the Asian giant, it reached 88.1 billion dollars (80.1 billion euros) in March.
It was $116.8 billion in January-February.
China is aiming for a growth target of 5% this year, one of the lowest in decades. Chinese Premier Li Qiang warned last month that it could be difficult to contact him.
To achieve this, “China must rely more on domestic demand,” Zhiwei Zhang said.
Source: BFM TV
