Portugal’s government debt ratio in the first quarter broke the downward path that had lasted nearly two years since the same quarter of 2021, the Bank of Portugal (BdP) revealed yesterday.
The debt burden increased slightly, from 113.9% in the last three months of last year to 114% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2023.
The increase in deposits explains part of this deterioration in the debt ratio, as does the moderation in the nominal growth of the economy (with inflation).
Apart from the money in the treasury (liquidity cushion or government deposits), the value of the debt in euros actually fell, reported yesterday the central bank headed by Mário Centeno, the entity responsible for calculating this key indicator of public accounts.
The pause in deleveraging comes at a delicate time, as inflation in the Eurozone jumped slightly in April, interrupting four consecutive months of relief.
The pace of rising consumer prices in the Eurozone accelerated from 6.9% in March to 7% last month, year on year.
However, several economists say this bump was already expected and should only be temporary, as the conditions are met for inflation to fall further from now on, taking into account the ride that took place after April last year. The base effect will remain essentially significant.
That is, this is not why the European Central Bank (ECB) is continuing with even more aggressive rate hikes, analysts note.
On Thursday, the ECB is expected to proceed, as expected, with a 0.25 percentage point hike in key interest rates.
Eurozone prices rose sharply after the outbreak of Russia’s war with Ukraine early last year, but now, a year later, year-over-year comparisons point to milder inflation going forward, most analysts say.
The rise in inflation was marginal and should not undermine the ECB’s plan
In any case, euro inflation remains disproportionately high and outside the parameters of the ECB, which wants to reduce this value, is a stable point of 2% in the medium term.
The government debt-to-GDP ratio has come to a standstill, but apparently still does not detract from Finance Ministry Fernando Medina’s annual target of 107.5% of GDP by the end of this year. Furthermore, nine months, three-quarters of the debt management in 2023 has to be determined.
“In March 2023 government debt, from the perspective of Maastricht [do Pacto de Estabilidade, aumentou 300 milhões de euros, para 279,3 mil milhões de euros”, referiu o BdP.
“Esta evolução reflete o crescimento das responsabilidades em depósitos (mais 3 mil milhões de euros) e com as emissões de certificados de aforro a ascenderem a 3,5 mil milhões de euros.”
Em sentido contrário, a República reembolsou, em termos líquidos, cerca de 2,7 mil milhões de euros em dívida pública, diz o banco central.
O gabinete de estudos BPI Research diz esperar que “a desaceleração da inflação prossiga, devido ao efeito de base da energia e a vários sinais desinflacionistas”, como “estrangulamentos normalizados, menores pressões internacionais sobre os preços dos produtos alimentares, uma desaceleração generalizada dos preços no produtor e uma moderação dos preços que as empresas esperam fixar”.
“No entanto, os dados também sugerem que a eventual descida da inflação para o objetivo de 2% do BCE levará mais tempo a concretizar-se, uma vez que os efeitos de segunda ordem geram inércia nos preços”, acrescenta a equipa do BPI.
Assim, mantém-se a perspetiva de “uma subida de 25 pontos base [0,25%] of official interest rates [do BCE, esta quinta-feira]followed by further increases”.
Luís Reis Ribeiro is a journalist for Dinheiro Vivo
Source: DN
