The Superior Council of Public Finances (HCFP) considers the trajectory set by the Government to reduce the public deficit in 2027 “not very ambitious”, in an opinion issued this Sunday on the eve of the presentation of the 2023 budget project.
The trajectory by which the Government intends to reduce this deficit from 5% of GDP to 2.9% during the five-year period is also considered “particularly fragile” by the HCFP, which considers its assumptions “on economic growth, on spending control and on the increase in mandatory fees”.
It specifies that for all these reforms “neither the methods, nor the impacts, nor the schedule are documented.” For pensions in particular, “the resulting savings would in any case be limited to the horizon of the programming period.”
The pension reform is not contained in the social security financing bill, according to the text consulted on Sunday by Agence France-Presse (AFP). The reform could be initiated by amendment during the parliamentary debate, or by a dedicated text, Minister for Relations with Parliament Franck Riester said on Sunday. This text foresees a sharp decrease in the Social Security deficit next year, to 6,800 million euros, compared to 17,800 million in 2022.
France is one of the 7 countries in the euro zone whose public debt is higher than GDP
According to the Superior Council, the public finance programming bill for the five-year period, which the Government must present this Monday at the same time as its budget for the year 2023, “does not contemplate a rapid return to the goal of balance in finances , to which France is committed” at European level.
France is now one of the seven countries in the euro zone whose public debt is higher than the gross domestic product (GDP), while in 11 of them it is less than 80% of GDP, notes the HCFP, according to which, although the Si the trajectory proposed by the government is respected, “France will continue to see its relative debt position deteriorate” within the euro zone.
In its separate opinion for 2023 alone, the HCFP sees the government’s 1% growth forecast as “a bit high”.
If revenue is likely to suffer next year due to weaker-than-expected activity, it will rise thanks to higher-than-anticipated tax revenue in 2022.
Public spending should fall by 1.1% once inflation is deducted, but “the deficit could end up being higher than expected due to the underestimation of certain expenses.” Finally, the public deficit forecast of 5% of annual GDP.
Source: BFM TV
