The OECD on Monday improved its growth outlook for the eurozone to 3.1% this year, but deteriorated to 0.3% next year, with inflation still estimated at 8.1% this year and 6.2% ,% in the following.
In the interim economic forecast released this Monday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is more optimistic about gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the eurozone this year, improving its estimate by 0.5 point. pp.) compared to June to 3.1%, but by 1.3 pp. that from 2023 to 0.3%.
“In Europe, many economies will have weak growth at best in the second half of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, before some improvement in the rest of 2023,” the OECD says. short-term prospects are likely in some countries, including Germany, Italy, the UK and the eurozone, given pressures from falling real incomes and turmoil in energy markets.
Among the major economies in the eurozone, the OECD predicts that the German economy will grow by 1.2% this year (-0.7 pp. than in June) and by 0.7 pp in 2023. will contract (-2.4 pp. previously) and that the French economy grew 2.6% (0.2 pp. compared to June) in 2022 and 0.6 (-0.8 pp.) in 2023.
For Italy, it forecasts GDP growth of 3.4% this year (0.9 pp. compared to June) and 0.4% in 2023 (-0.8 pp.) and for Spain 4.4% (0.3 pp.) this year and 1.5% (-0.6 pp.) in 2023.
The OECD also warns of the impact of inflationary pressures in Europe and forecasts inflation to rise to 8.1% in 2022, an upward revision of 1.1 percentage points. compared to June and to 6.2% in 2023, an increase of 1.6 pp. than before.
It also estimates that core inflation will reach 3.9% this year (0.1 pp. more than estimated in June) and set at 3.8% in 2023 (-0.2 pp. than in the previous report).
The OECD explains that the forecast is shrouded in “significant uncertainty”, pointing to global risks such as an ever-increasing reduction in energy supplies from Russia to the European Union, the escalation of food prices and China’s high debt and housing market.
Maintains global growth of 3% this year
Global growth is expected to slow from 3% in 2022 to 2.2% in 2023, due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, predicts the OECD, which maintained its outlook for this year compared to June but that reduced next year.
In its interim economic forecast released this Monday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) points out that the global economy was hit by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with global economic growth stalling in the second quarter of this year, and indicators many economies are now pointing to a prolonged period of subdued growth.
The OECD has maintained its growth outlook for global gross domestic product (GDP) at 3% this year and forecast that the G20 economies will grow by 2.8% (0.1 percentage point (pp) less than in June).
Of the major world economies, he sees the North American economy growing at 1.5% (1 pp. less than in June), the eurozone at 3.1% (0.5 pp. more than previously estimated) and China at 3.1%. 2% (1.2pp less than before).
For the United Kingdom, it forecasts growth of 3.4%, minus 0.2 pp. than in the June estimates.
For 2023, the OECD cut global and G20 growth forecasts by 0.6 percentage points. to 2.2%.
It is also more pessimistic about US economic growth, now forecasting growth of 0.5%, minus 0.7pp. than before.
It also lowered the outlook for the eurozone by 1.3 pp. to 0.3%, while the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 4.7%, minus 0.2 pp.
“A key factor holding back global growth is the continued broad-based tightening of monetary policy in most economies in response to last year’s above-expected inflation target. In addition, the erosion of household real disposable income, low consumer confidence and high prices of some energy products, especially natural gas in Europe, will negatively affect both private consumption and investment activities,” he says.
The Paris-based organization warns that there is “significant” uncertainty surrounding the projections, estimating that a more severe energy shortage, particularly gas, could reduce growth in Europe by a further 1.2 percentage points. in 2023, with a global growth of 0.5 percentage points.
The organization also points out that an additional 20% increase in global oil prices over a year, with a rise in early 2023, which later disappears, could add another 0.6 pp. reduce inflation in 2023 and global growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points.
Source: DN
