The monkeypox epidemic is in full decline, but be careful not to declare victory too soon, experts and health authorities warn: we must not forget the many African countries where it circulated long before this year.
“We are getting close to the end, but we are not there yet,” says virologist Jean-Claude Manuguara. With more than 70,000 cases in a hundred countries since May, “an epidemic of monkeypox so large in such a short time is unheard of,” recalls this head of the Environment and Infectious Risks Unit of the Institut Pasteur.
Main (but not only) stakeholders: men who have sex with men.
“An epidemic that slows down can be more dangerous, because we can think that the crisis is over and lower our caution,” warned Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the WHO, in mid-October.
“Vaccination helped”
However, if the epidemic is slowing down, several experts point out, it is largely thanks to behavioral change within at-risk communities, although vaccination has also played a role.
The behaviors have been able to evolve remarkably thanks to the role “of the associations, perhaps more listened to than the authorities and closer to the field”, suggests Jean-Claude Manuguera. Surveys indicate that more than half of men who have sex with men have reduced their number of sexual encounters.
As for vaccination, “it has helped, but the number of available vaccines is still low,” recalls Carlos Maluquer de Motes, professor of virology at the British University of Surrey.
Less contagious than Covid-19
In any case, “significant uncertainties remain about the evolution of the epidemic,” stresses the European agency. Its experts draw four scenarios. Battery: rebound in the epidemic, linked in particular to the return of risk behaviors, or reduced circulation of the virus with sporadic outbreaks. Face: persistent decline in the epidemic, including elimination of the disease in Europe.
The goal remains to prevent monkeypox from becoming more dangerous, or even taking hold in countries where it is not. Currently, it is “endemic” in about ten African countries.
It is true that the monkeypox virus is much less contagious than, for example, that of Covid. Therefore, cases tend to progress much more slowly. But “the more cycles of infection there are, the more likely it is that monkeypox will change and infect more,” says Carlos Maluquer de Motes.
Source: BFM TV
