On Friday, December 30, preceded by many European neighbors, the French government finally made the decision to impose a negative test on all travelers from China, as well as the return to the use of masks on planes. A retaliatory measure against Covid-19, justified by the explosion of cases in the most populous country in the world.
After three years of drastic management of the epidemic, the Beijing authorities hastily relaxed the epidemic containment measures at the end of 2022, in the face of a protest movement unprecedented since Tiananmen. Therefore, it is no longer mandatory for a person who has tested positive to isolate themselves in a closed center. And from January 8, Chinese travelers will be able to travel abroad without being quarantined upon their return.
This prospect is viewed nervously by Western countries, especially as China is accused of not transparently communicating its epidemic data. Only anonymous testimonies or those provided by Western journalists report overcrowding in hospitals and morgues.
1 million cases per day
It is in this context that the Covars, who came to replace the Scientific Council last October, provided the French authorities on December 29 with a “news update on the Covid-19 in relation to the Chinese epidemic”. The committee, led by the immunologist Brigitte Autran, does not hide the seriousness of the situation in China.
“An epidemic wave due to Omicron variants has been raging in China for several months, including a large wave in April/May 2022 followed by a plateau and then a wave of high intensity since the cessation of barrier measures.” Zero-Covid'”. , the experts write in the document that BFMTV was able to consult.
A model developed by researchers at the University of Hong Kong even evokes a million new positive cases per day. In Italy, which began testing passengers from China in late December, positivity rates of 38% and 52% were observed at Milan airport on December 28 among passengers from China.
“Illusory”
Given these elements, will the measures announced by the French government effectively stop the arrival of new cases from China? And will they be effective in blocking the arrival on French territory of a possible new Chinese variant? The Covars are more than measured in their opinion:
“Les restrictions imposed on South Africa pending the emergence of Omicron by the end of 2021 ont eu très peu d’impact sur l’évolution de l’epidémie en Europe, Omicron ayant été introduit en Europe par d’autres pays que l ‘South Africa”.
Thus, wanting to “delay the introduction of Chinese cases or variants seems illusory,” underlines the committee. A finding supported by the speed at which the epidemic is spreading in China. Similarly, testing passengers upon arrival could be useful in detecting the arrival of new variants.
But the approach “must remain compatible with the free movement of positive people, as defined by French law,” the Covars write.
In the end, the Committee recommends requiring a negative test within 48 hours prior to departure from China, imposing masks on the plane, but also requiring a full vaccination certificate from travelers. As for screening tests on arrival, they should be offered voluntarily, randomly, or even to “febrile/symptomatic” people.
Less dangerous variants for Europeans?
However, the Covars are not alarmist about the situation. First, because the Chinese population has very little immunity after three years of “Covid-Zero” management, unlike the European populations, which have been massively exposed to Covid-19.
“Variants likely to arise in China in this context of a different immunological profile between the Chinese and European populations, may not have the immunological escape characteristics that allow them to spread easily in the European population,” Covars’s experts write.
The latter even believe that the arrival of new travelers from China could have little or no influence on the epidemic dynamics in France. “The arrival of a few hundred additional cases from China and variant carriers already circulating in France should not fundamentally change local dynamics,” the Covars write.
Therefore, “managing arrivals from China (…) would not affect the dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic in France.”
Source: BFM TV
