“Having a relative majority does not change our program at all. What changes is the method and the way of voting on the texts.” These statements by a pillar of the Renaissance roughly summarize the atmosphere in the majority benches for the return of deputies to the hemicycle on Monday.
The serious thing does begin in the National Assembly, with several bills that could require the use of 49.3 to be approved, starting with the budget. Because the executive, with only 250 elected officials committed to his cause, does not have an absolute majority in the chamber.
But other majority-carried texts should be adopted without incident thanks to LR votes.
• Unemployment insurance: an a priori text without great risks for the majority
First file on the table: the unemployment insurance, which is being examined from this Monday. The Government wants to condition the duration of the payment of the benefits to the economic situation.
The objective “is to guarantee that, when the economic situation is very good, the rules are more incentivizing and, on the contrary, when growth slows down, the protections are stronger”, explained the Labor Minister, Olivier Dussopt, before the Social Affairs Committee of the end of September.
The time required before being entitled to access unemployment compensation could also be on the table, following discussions with the social partners. Currently it is 6 months of the last 24 months. Access to unemployment benefits after “job abandonment” could also stop.
The reform worries the RN benches, who lamented in the voice of deputy Laure Lavalette “the end of effective protection against the risk of unemployment.” La Nupes was hardly more tender: François Ruffin, for example, denounced “silent violence” and “an additional layer of abuse”.
Although they lament a “content that is still a bit timid”, the Republicans and their 62 deputies should vote in favor of the text and allow its adoption, despite the relative presidential majority.
• The 2023 budget: a very likely 49.3
This text, which refers to the financing of the state budget for the next year, is still under close scrutiny. It takes a particular turn with a narrow majority for the government, but also with the impact of rising prices on the daily life of the French. In particular in the menu of this budget, the examination of which must begin on October 10: the limitation of the 15% increase in the price of gas and electricity and the indexation of the income tax scale based on the level of inflation .
The oppositions have already made known their disagreements with this text. From the president of the PS group, Boris Vallaud, who denounced “an attractive budget”, to Marine Le Pen who announced that the RN group “would vote against the budget, a marker of a policy that we challenge”.
However, this budget could be an opportunity for Nupes to try to move forward on a possible “super-profit” imposition, after several energy and shipping giants have reaped record profits in recent months.
If Emmanuel Macron referred to a European fiscal mechanism, the president of the Legal Commission, the Renaissance deputy Sacha Houlié, said in the echoes “favorable to an exceptional contribution on companies that have generated profits linked to an income situation”. What to predict possible setbacks within the majority.
Another unknown: the position adopted by the LR. If Éric Ciotti has already announced that he “does not want to be the government’s crutch”, several right-wing figures such as Olivier Marleix, president of the group, or Annie Genevard, interim leader of the party, have done so 96% and 78% voted respectively time in the direction of the majority. Bercy has also tried to smooth things over by taking on all the opposition.
However, the government does not rule out the use of article 49.3 to approve the first budget of Emmanuel Macron’s second five-year period. “If there is still a path (to dispense with 49.3), it is narrow,” said Bruno Le Maire, during a press conference at the Ministry of Economy.
• The social security budget: another possible 49.3
This text, which should reach the National Assembly on October 20, aims to ensure the financing of the French solidarity system and contains several emblematic measures.
Among them, we find the increase in the price of cigarette packs, the free morning-after pill for all women, regardless of their age, and the cessation of reimbursements for certain work stoppages by teleconsultation. The Government also wants to increase by 10% the rate of detected social benefit fraud by granting police powers to certain agents.
Despite a heavily revised budget, hospitals are still a billion euros short of compensating for inflation, covid and salary increases, the French Federation of Hospitals said on Thursday, predicting many fights between the government and the opposition.
The relative majority context makes the adoption of this text by the deputies seem unlikely, perhaps forcing the government to continue using 49.3.
• Renewable energies: LR and EELV could unite against
Gone under the radar, this bill “related to the acceleration of the production of renewable energy” will first reach the Senate before being considered in the National Assembly probably in November. This is a highly flammable issue: the investigation of files to facilitate the establishment of new wind and solar farms.
The issue is tense on the benches of the right and the RN. Marine Le Pen called in her presidential program to stop any new installation of wind turbines and to dismantle without replacing all those that have reached the end of their life. Olivier Marleix, president of the LR group in the National Assembly, has already made his opposition known, accusing wind turbines of “disfiguring France.”
If some within the majority saw the environmentalists say yes to this text, the fears of the environmental NGOs change the situation. This bill would allow, for example, the installation of photovoltaic projects along roads, highways or on vacant land, raising fears of threats to biodiversity.
Proof that the issue is of concern within the macronie: the Minister of Energy Transition Agnès Pannier-Runacher, who will lead this bill, multiplied telephone calls with the presidents of the parliamentary groups in August.
One thing is certain: the Government, which only uses 49.3 extrabudgetary texts once per parliamentary session, will not burn this cartridge for this text.
“I think we can come and convince. But if that’s not the case, we’re not going to leave our shirts there,” a deputy from the National Assembly’s sustainable development commission told BFMTV.com.
• Programming Law of the Ministry of the Interior: a text voted with the voices of LR and RN?
Regularly attacked on his security record – two out of three French people find it bad according to a recent survey – the executive has decided to take a step forward. This text defended by the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin should allow the recruitment of 8,500 police and gendarmes for 5 years, the reopening of certain prefectures and investments in cybersecurity.
This law should pass without much difficulty thanks to the voices of LR and RN.
• The pension reform: meeting in early 2023?
The most explosive debates, regarding the pension reform, should not take place immediately in the hemicycle. The Executive has decided to temporize, reopening a cycle of consultations for the approval of a bill “before the end of winter.”
After a dinner at the Elysee around Emmanuel Macron, Elisabeth Borne explained that she wanted to present “a balance” of these conversations with the social partners and the political forces “before Christmas”, with an application of the reform to the summer of 2023.
“The exam of the project of the future arriver after the feasts for which the puisse was adopted in the winter 2023”, I explained the porte-parole du gouvernement Olivier Véran sur BFMTV, also stating that the winter “is just in February”.
Source: BFM TV
