With the president of the republic permanently putting talks about early elections on the agenda – a subliminal idea of the meeting of the Council of State he called tomorrow to carry out “an analysis of the economic, social and political situation in Portugal” – , António Costa is in parliament this afternoon for the second State of the Nation debate since he won the legislature with an absolute majority, in January 2022. The device was undone long ago, the prime minister knows it will be for himself , another seven-to-one debate for the government and for the PS.
Apart from the weaker record of Livre’s sole deputy Rui Tavares, no one in the rest of the opposition will spare themselves in attacks on the socialist majority. “Roller”, “absolute power”, “demotion”, “incompetence”, “impoverishment” are words Costa will hear from the opposition. And against this opposition country, the Prime Minister and the PS will oppose their country: growing economy, growing employment, rising exports, controlled inflation, support to reach the most needy Portuguese, PRR is coming – and all this with “certain bills”. in the national budget.
Six acquisitions
Costa knows, however, that he has little to answer to escape the charge that the government itself has been the main factor of political instability, for reasons of its full responsibility, without the opposition needing to change a word. The current government took office on March 30, 2022 and since then six ceremonies have taken place in the Palace of Belém: in 2022 there were four (May 2, September 10, September 16 and December 2) and already two this year (the major renovation on January 4, when Pedro Nuno Santos was replaced in Infrastructure by João Galamba, and another smaller ceremony, just for a new Secretary of State for Agriculture, on December 15). February.) The government has additionally arrived at today’s debate in the wake of yet another resignation, this time from Defense Secretary Marco Capitão Ferreira, suspected of corruption in the Perfect Storm trial (which will only be replaced today by a diplomat, Carlos Lopes Pires).
“I heard Manuel Alegre say something very sensible a few months ago, the fruit of his long democratic experience, namely: the power to dissolve is a power provided by the constitution and therefore the president cannot and must not – there are my predecessors who did this – say every week “I have this power”, “I have this power”, “I have this power”.
Self-inflicted government instability has thus been the main pretext for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to continue talking about dissolution (and continues to believe that João Galamba should no longer be in government). In order not to be accused of promoting instability himself, the president has lately preferred the ruse of talking about dissolution, but always saying that one should not talk about decomposition.
Yesterday he even hid behind a history of the State Council PS: “I heard Manuel Alegre say a few months ago something very sensible, the result of his long democratic experience, namely: the power of dissolution is a power provided for in the Constitution and therefore also the president cannot, must not – there are my predecessors who did – say every week “I have this power”, “I have this power”, “I have this power”, said Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. Therefore: “[O Presidente da República] if you understand you need to use it, then use it. If you understand that you are not allowed to use it, then don’t use it. Now he doesn’t talk about it every week.” He doesn’t talk – but he does talk, to say he doesn’t talk, thus keeping the issue on the agenda parties that started Friday last week and ended Monday – The idea of dissolution , according to the president’s words, remain on the back burner, thus seems to be increasingly associated with the idea of evaluating the legitimacy of the government through a national election law.
Today’s debate on the state of the nation takes place precisely as a new election cycle is about to begin, which should only end (when the parliamentary term comes to an end) with legislative elections held in October 2026 and running until that time will include European elections (June 2024), regional elections in the Azores (October 2024), municipal elections (October 2025) and presidential elections (January 2026).
This cycle begins in September with the regional elections in Madeira. In theory, they cannot influence the national political game in any way. However, things could change if this time the PSD (which is in tandem with the CDS) wins, but without an absolute majority, and therefore needs Chega to form a government. Signs of the PSD of Madeira are that, if necessary, it will not hesitate for a second to reach an agreement with the regional representatives of André Ventura’s party to gain a majority in the regional parliament.
The “spirit” of the Azores
At that time, in view of this possible circumstance, the PS and António Costa will again have a pretext to deliver the speech of fear about the possibility of Chega reaching the government that embraces the PSD. During the last legislatures, the pretext of the socialists was precisely the agreement between PSD and Chega that was made in the Azores, after the regional elections held there in October 2020. Costa’s speech strengthened the concentration of votes to the left in his party, giving it an absolute majority and causing serious damage to the parliamentary representation of the PCP and Chega. Any PSD-Chega deal in Madeira, after the next regional elections, the PS will be inclined to resume this tactic – and as much as the national PSD knows how this could hurt it, the truth is that Montenegro does not have the power to contradict Miguel Albuquerque (as Rui didn’t have Rio in the Azores to contradict José Manuel Bolieiro).
Today, António Costa faces the debate about the state of the nation within such a framework of self-inflicted instability, but the truth is also that in the opposition there are only two parties, Iniciativa Liberal and Chega, who say that it is time for the country to hold early elections. On the right, the PSD has refused to join this call – despite claiming to be ready for elections when they are scheduled – and on the left of the PS no party is also defending the dissolution of parliament.
Also, if the government’s internal mess has been central to the criticism of the entire opposition, the truth is that it has had different weight in the parties on the left and those on the right. The bet on this issue has been given a higher priority for PSD, Chega and IL than for PCP, BE, PAN and Livre.
The return of the fortnightly
What everyone agrees on is accusing the PS of using its absolute majority as a “steel roller” that leaves no room for opposition initiatives, the Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry’s final report to TAP being the ultimate example. To this, Costa and the PS will reply that today, after the debate, the new Statutes of the Assembly of the Republic will be approved, which, as several opposition parties intended, will see the return of biweekly debates with the Prime Minister (currently Costa is only about the two months to Parliament). From September onwards, the prime minister will once again hold a debate with the deputies every two weeks.
In addition, what the opposition foresees, with regard to the areas of governance, is the focus on four ministries: Defense (due to the suspicions of corruption that led to the resignation of Marco Capitão Ferreira); Health (because the new top man of SNS does not yet have an organic law and because of problems with emergency closures); Education (because the problem of teacher shortage in primary education is getting worse); and Housing (because of the price explosion).
While acknowledging that the government has been through “difficult times” and that there is still “a lot to do”, the PS is pushing ahead with the idea that the country is growing, that stability is needed to maximize the potential of the PRR to use.
Source: DN
