Five days before election night, at Mercado do Santo da Serra, the certainty was “absolute”. “Neither with some nor with others. We do not make agreements with socialists, period. The PSD is socialist,” Nuno Morna, who was elected deputy on Sunday, assured DN. Not even a parliamentary agreement?, I ask. “Dates? We are not available for that,” assured Rui Rocha, national leader of the Liberal Initiative. In other words, neither a government agreement after the elections, nor a parliamentary agreement?, I maintain. “No,” says Nuno Morna. Rui Rocha clarifies that he only accepts “an assessment by measure, proposal by proposal, program by program, budget by budget, and that we exercise our obligations responsibly” and rejects “parliamentary agreements” that provide a “majority” for the PSD/ guarantee CDS. coalition.

There will be a change on Sunday. The ‘adult in the room’, the words come from the leader of the Liberal Initiative, announces ‘all commitment, all availability to form a stable solution for Madeira’.

What happened to ‘no’? No one from IL was available to provide clarification. And what agreement is acceptable? Absolute silence. The only guarantee is that no ‘discussions’ took place yesterday about possible agreements.

The two loves

The PAN, which forms a coalition with the PS in the Funchal Chamber, opened “all doors” to guarantee an absolute majority for Miguel Albuquerque, who fought for weeks.

What drives a party to be part of PS and PSD at the same time? Nobody answers. And what agreement is possible? Silence is the answer.

There is a belief among social democrats and socialists that the “green” [é assim que lhe chamam] It is the safest option for a parliamentary agreement given the Liberals’ “more complicated demands”, which are well known.

“Safe”, but “not completely”, says social democratic source. “A parliamentary agreement is always a risk. There is no guarantee that at any time, as a result of a disagreement – and this could happen – [o PAN] Tear up the agreement and let’s have another election,” he explains. “It’s better to have one gerinponcha with them and the government,” he added.

And in this scenario the PSD, which has already won two regional elections [2019 e 2023] Without achieving what Alberto João Jardim has always achieved (absolute majorities), he risks “eventually losing the government”.

And here Pedro Calado, mayor of Funchal and former deputy of Albuquerque – whom Alberto João Jardim, as he already told DN, considers “the future” – is the strongest name to win the leadership of the party.

‘The safest thing, in the name of stability, will be to give them up [ao PAN] a regional secretariat,” says a parliamentary source from the PSD-M.

The agreement reached yesterday and which will only be known today is part of the guarantees that will be offered to the representative of the Republic in Madeira, who will hear all the elected parties tomorrow and Thursday before inviting Albuquerque to a to form a coalition. Government.

He says he didn’t say it

The guarantees were given in an interview with Rádio Renascença on September 6: “If I don’t win the elections, I will resign. Clarity is essential for people to understand. I will not compromise, that’s why they also vote for this majority and If the path we have been following continues, otherwise they will not vote for this majority. If they do not vote for this majority, I will leave (…). If I do not win the elections, In elections I obviously cannot support the party continue to lead. Politics This must be undertaken with a sense of risk.’

The promise was repeated and dramatized during the weeks of the election campaign. However, on Sunday evening, and despite repeatedly assuring that he “would not make any appointments” and that he would resign, as was “obvious”, Miguel Albuquerque created a new narrative: “I did not change my opinion. spirit” – to ensure that it was “capable” of announcing a government in the coming days with an absolute majority, backed by a parliamentary agreement.

“That is very little for a government with strong social communication and money,” says Alberto João Jardim.

The ‘very small’ of Jardim is the result of ‘circumstances’, according to Rui Barreto, leader of the regional CDS. And ‘ideologically close’ to PSD, CDS, PAN and IL can together be part of the solution for the absolute majority. But there were no “talks” between PSD and IL.

Socialist nuisance

What really bothers you? This sentence: “The Prime Minister congratulated the President of the Regional Government of Madeira on the result achieved today, with wishes for continued good work for the region and the country.”

The explanation is simple. The Prime Minister “his name is António Costa, he is a socialist and general secretary” of the PS and “not a single word is addressed to the regional leader of the party”.

“And keep up the good work? Here we are denouncing the bad governance that impoverishes Madeira, and the numbers are there to prove it, we are presenting solutions… and he is praising the PSD?” asks a local source.

The growing dissatisfaction with Costa, who recently said before the Madeiran socialists that “Madeira does not like the PS” to the surprise of those present, could pave the way for a change of attitude, which has so far been cautious and supportive was in national politics. PS, which puts an end to the many years of ‘squats’ – an expression used by the PSD-M to say that Madeira’s socialists ‘do what the PS tells them there’.

The perspective of ‘confronting who where necessary [um “quem” que abrange dirigentes “e outros” que, na Madeira, “se esquecem que são socialistas”] understands nothing of what is going on here”, reinforces the “majority tendency”, in the party, to support the current leader, considers another leader.

Since 1976, it has been customary to “burn leaders every two years” because they have lost elections. And everyone lost them.

It is therefore not surprising that on election night two names took a stand to depose Sérgio Gonçalves. The difference is in what they say.

João Pedro Vieira [que é adjunto do ministro da Saúde e que já foi assessor da eurodeputada Sara Cerdas] questioned on Antena 1 Madeira the “legitimacy” of the leader, arguing that Sérgio Gonçalves cannot go further, and said that he himself was available for “any possibility”.

The other alleged candidate, Miguel Silva Gouveia [que sucedeu a Paulo Cafôfo na Câmara do Funchal quando o atual secretário de Estado das Comunidades se candidatou, em 2019, a presidente do Governo Regional e perdeu as autárquicas em 2021]considers it “legitimate that there may be other projects and applications” and sees no reason to “close the doors to anything”.

You can “quickly see” that “there may not be any development” and the emphasis, to establish the differences, that “at no point did I ask anyone to resign,” he told DN.

The pretension of João Pedro Vieira and the criticism of Carlos Pereira [ex-líder e atual deputado na Assembleia da República, que “nem aqui esteve para apoiar o seu partido”, diz fonte do PS-M] they are even devalued by the social democrats, who are used to “those who no longer count for anything, but find a way to weaken the socialists,” summarizes a PSD-M leader.

In the case of Miguel Silva Gouveia (councilor in the Chamber of Funchal), the reading by the leaders of the PSD-M and PS-M is different: “Political inability” came to light when asked about the internal elections of the party, in In March of the following year he said in a debate with Pedro Calado (mayor of Funchal) “we will see soon”.

Sérgio Gonçalves has not yet revealed what he plans to do [ficar ou sair]but it seems almost certain that it will have internal support for the next electoral clash: the 2025 local elections. “It would be a surprise and a mistake if it came out,” says a PS-M parliamentary source.