For the chairman of the PSD, Luís Montenegro“It is essential to achieve a good result [eleições para o Parlamento Europeu]because his leadership may not survive.” This is one of the horizons proposed to DN by political scientist Marco Lisi. “It must get more votes than the Socialist Party because if not, it will clearly be difficult to remain in the leadership of the party”adds the professor at the Faculty of Social and Human Sciences of the Universidade Nova de Lisboa (FCSH).
The European elections will take place between 6 and 9 June 2024 and even without mobilizing the same number of Portuguese voters as the national elections, they will ultimately be a test for the parties and could “be a sign or a symptom of his political capitalization”explains Paula do Espírito Santo to DN, researcher at the Higher Institute of Social and Political Sciences (ISCSP). “In the case of the PSD, it would be important to assert themselves with a candidate who was someone who was more central to the party or who belonged to the party”emphasizes the political scientist, who contradicts the hypothesis that has blossomed in the past two weeks, in which the mayor of Porto, Rui Moreira, an independent, emerged as one of the possible candidates for the head of the list in the European elections through social media. democratic wing. There has not yet been any invitation for this purpose, Moreira assured last week in an interview with Público en Renascença. When journalists asked a week earlier whether the mayor of Porto had the characteristics to represent the PSD at the European Championships, it was Montenegro itself who confirmed this. “In the country, among all the independent personalities, Rui Moreira is one of those who meets this demand in the abstract,” he stated. According to DN, a social democratic source assured that certainty about the PSD’s strategy for the European elections is only in the mind of Montenegro, which will reveal it only early next year.
‘Rui Moreira, we know he is not a candidate for the PSD, not a leader, not a figurehead’, says Paula do Espírito Santo. “We know, of course, that he is a candidate on the right spectrum, but he may give the impression of a second resource, which, if he were the candidate at the head of the list, may not provide an image of confirmation. “, projects the political scientist, emphasizing, however, that Rui Moreira “is always a strong figure, at the northern level and at the political level in general”.
Fighting for a tight space
In 2019, the last time voters were called to go to the polls and elect deputies to the European Parliament, the PS won nine of the 21 possible mandates for Portugal, one more than in the previous elections in 2014. PSD chose six. delegates, one less compared to the number it managed to secure in 2014. The Bloco de Esquerda (BE) went from one to two deputies, while the PCP, in coalition with Os Verdes, went from three to two. Outside the coalition it had with the PSD, the CDS chose one deputy in 2019, Nuno Melo, who would become the party leader. Finally, the PAN elected a deputy, Francisco Guerreiro, who would eventually lose the party’s political confidence and remain independent until now.
But 2024 will add political forces to the equation that were not yet confirmed in 2019. Enough, the Liberal Initiative (IL) and Livre will make an already highly contested space even tighter.
To DN, PCP MEP João Pimenta Lopes guarantees that the tight space in the European Parliament could be less tight. “There was a possibility that Portugal would get back the lost delegates. The country already had 25 deputies, for two terms. There are currently 21.”he explains, arguing that the PCP tried in vain to get Portugal to regain the number of deputies who took advantage of the free space in the European Parliament with the departure of the United Kingdom.
Rise of the ‘radical right’
Chega “is the only party that may make a very positive statement in the European elections”, Riccardo Marchi, researcher at the Center for International Studies of the University Institute of Lisbon (CEI-IUL), told DN. “Firstly, because the European elections are generally quite favorable for these types of radical right-wing populist parties,” the political scientist explains about the party led by André Ventura. Taking into account “its upward trajectory, of strengthening in national terms, it is very likely that Chega will receive this strengthening in terms of the European Parliament”, Paula do Espírito Santo also states. And what political arsenal does André Ventura propose? “Ventura cannot run for a European position because he is clearly further away,” predicts Marco Lisi. “It is likely that Ventura will choose someone from the leadership. Someone with a reputation within the parliamentary group. One of the figures within the party could be Rita Matias, and is familiar with European issues, as she is the person linked to Chega’s external relations. He knows the party families and its closest international allies very well. He is a new figure, a young figure, he could be an asset to the party,” says the FCSH political scientist.
For Riccazrdo Marchi, regardless of any other strategy followed by Chega, “I’m sure André Ventura will be there”he guarantees, thereby recovering the income that Chega used in the regional elections in Madeira.
As for the Liberal Initiative: “if we take into account the growth trend at the national level we can say, in comparative terms, that there is no reason not to continue to grow, with this reflection of the electorate that has already won and that can also move to the European Parliament in terms of affection for the party,” states Paula do Espírito Santo, warning, however, “that there is at least this growth expectation, which will be one of the biggest threats to the CDS”.
For Marco Lisi, “IL’s speech on Europe could be an added value, it could be a moment of confirmation for the party, which is important, especially since it is more pro-European than Chega”.
The ‘all or nothing’ test
The CDS “given the critical moment it has experienced, it is really all or nothing here”, says Paula do Espírito Santo. For the political scientist, the potential “loss of the deputy he has now [Nuno Melo] It is essentially heralding the extinction of the party. And the competition the party has is very strong on the right”and the risk of losing the only mandate he now holds “could mean that there are fewer chances for rehabilitation at national parliamentary level,” concludes the political researcher, referring to the loss of all CDS deputies in the Assembly of the Republic in the legislature. January 2022 elections.
“Behind the Scenes Games” on PS
“In the case of the PS, the majority is not at stake, the stability of the government is not at stake,” says Marco Lisi. “It has more to do with internal balances and with potential leaders who could be candidates for the future leadership of the party. There are games behind the scenes that will be important, more than conveying a certain image to the electorate. From the Socialist Party’s point of view, they always want to get a good result, but there are no major risks for the leader, António Costa, neither for the party nor for the government. That is why it must be someone outside the hard core of the government.”, anticipates the political scientist, who also makes a recommendation to the socialists: “I think the PS would benefit from this if it had a figure who was close to the party “, but who is not directly linked to the party cadres. A figure, let’s say, independent, who can reduce the bad assessment given to the government, a more distant image that can symbolize an openness to other sectors outside the party,” he advises.
And regarding the lack of names to head the party lists, Paula do Espírito Santo theorizes a scenario. “It is symptomatic of the lack of interest or importance attached to the European elections,” the political scientist reveals.
Lack of helpful votes
“BE and PCP are parties that could be punished by the dynamics of the PS victory, because we also know that voters sometimes do not have as much mobilization in terms of useful votes as in national elections,” the researcher believes. Paula do Espirito Santo. Therefore, for the political scientist, in this European context there is less chance of a transfer of votes between left-wing parties, for example from the PCP to the PS, where voters are afraid to see the right assert itself.
And if, according to Marco Lisi, “it is important for the Left Bloc to maintain its presence in the European Parliament,” it is crucial for the PCP to “keep its electorate loyal to the party. So don’t lose any more votes in the European Parliament.” relationship to the other left parties.” However, he points out that “for the base of the Communist Party, these are not very important elections. They are undervalued.” However, the voices within the PCP echo in a different direction. It is very far removed from what is the practice and reality and from the way in which the PCP always gets involved in any electoral act,” explains communist deputy João Pimenta Lopes, and promises one “intervention based on the interests of the workers and the Portuguese people”.
But for BE the scenario is different. “I think there is also a need here to find figures who can be new protagonists,” says Marco Lisi. The MEP “Marisa Matias has been in the European Parliament for years. From an electorate point of view, she recognizes the capacity and knowledge of the various dossiers, but I think she can also show some fatigue”analyzes the researcher, who emphasizes that the former party coordinator, “Catarina Martins, has been an option”, especially because it would be a way to focus the party’s attention on the new party leader. “He will have to be a prominent figure who can mobilize in the European elections, but at the same time appreciate the role of Mariana Mortágua’s leadership,” the researcher concludes.
Source: DN
