The richest, oldest and PSD voters prefer Passos Coelho; the poorest, youngest, abstentions and PS voters prefer Luís Montenegro. Yet, 30% of respondents did not know or did not want to answer the question of which PSD leader they preferred.
A few months before the March 10 elections, voters appear divided over the ideal PSD leader to go to the polls.
Montenegro has better results in the North, with 28 percentage points, against 24 for Passos Coelho and in the Center, with 28 percentage points, against 25 for Passos Coelho. The former prime minister only wins more comfortably in the Porto metropolitan area, with 27 percentage points (pp), compared to 24 in Montenegro.
Carlos Moedas only wins the preference of respondents in the South and the Islands, with 24 pp, against 21 for Passos Coelho and 18 for Montenegro. Interestingly, the mayor of Lisbon does not prevail in the Lisbon metropolitan area, where the capital is located.
The legacy of the troika has punished the PSD among older voters, given the memory of pension cuts, but in this Aximage survey, Passos Coelho does not appear to be a victim of the measures taken during his government.
It is the youngest people that the former prime minister does not seem to be able to convince. Montenegro is gaining among younger voters: 32 percentage points among respondents aged 18 to 34, against only 23 percentage points for Passos Coelho. Among older people, the former leader of the PSD and CDS coalition governments is the favorite of respondents: among those over 65, Passos Coelho is preferred by 23% of respondents, compared to 18% of respondents. Montenegro.
Another important fact is that, although among the richest, the confidence goes to Passos Coelho, followed by Carlos Moedas and, only last, to Montenegro; With regard to the poorest, the situation is substantially different: Carlos Moedas is favored by only 8% of those who chose between the three candidates, while Montenegro has 30 percentage points and Passos Coelho 26 percentage points.
The result is different for PSD voters. Passos Coelho receives 47% of the preferences, against 31% for the current leader. Moedas’s best result is among PS voters, where he achieves 24 percentage points.
RESEARCH TECHNICAL SHEET
Purpose of the survey: Opinion survey conducted by Aximage – Comunicação e Imagem Lda. for DN on current national political topics. Universe: Individuals over 18 years of age living in Portugal. Sample: Quota sampling, obtained from a matrix crossing gender, age and region (NUTSII), from the known universe, rebalanced by gender (2), age group (4) and region (4). The sample had 516 effective interviews; 115 between 18 and 34 years, 150 between 35 and 49 years, 138 between 50 and 64 years and 113 for people over 65; North 199, Center 107, South and Islands 65, Lisbon Metropolitan Area 145. Technique: Online application – CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing) – of a structured questionnaire to a panel of individuals meeting predetermined quotas; Fieldwork took place between November 8 and 9, 2023. Response rate: 88.36% Margin of error: The maximum sampling error for this study, for a 95% confidence interval, is + or – 4.3%. Responsible for the research: Aximage – Comunicação e Imagem Lda., under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
